Creative Destruction in the International State System

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K01605
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Weese Eric 東京大学, 社会科学研究所, 准教授 (50777844)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: Balance of power / Creative destruction / War / Alliances

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research project focussed mainly on analyzing all changes in European boundaries over roughly the past 1000 years. Our first set of results examined cities that switched control between different European states. The switch was destructive in the short term but in the long term increased the size of the cities as switches tended to be towards more productive states.
Our second set of results concerns when territorial transfers between states involve war. Our data shows that the vast majority of these transfers are peaceful. A war is more likely to occur when the sides to the dispute are more evenly matched. This may be because this is when the outcome is uncertain: in cases where the sides are unevenly matched, war will generally not occur because the winner could be predicted in advance.
A final aspect of this research project looked at the UN security council. We found that states that were asked to (and did) comply with resolutions were more likely to be elected.

Free Research Field

政治経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

The relative power of different countries changes over time. Are some changes or configurations particularly likely to lead to war? Is the rise of China likely to lead to military conflict? Based on the last 1000 years of European history, wars are more likely when powers are evenly matched.