2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Verification based on international comparison of air transportation industry logistics power estimation method by sea-air modal shift structural change analysis

Research Project

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Project/Area Number	19K01952
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Section	一般
Review Section	Basic Section 07090:Commerce-related
Research Institution	Kansai Gaidai University
Principal Investigator	Miyashita Kunio 関西外国語大学, 外国語学部, 教授 (60030714)
Project Period (FY)	2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
Keywords	ロジスティクス競争力評価 / 空海代替行動モデル / 直接投資 / 期待運賃 / 延期行動 / 弱者淘汰モデル / 強者選別モデル」 / 公平・合理的モデル」
Outline of Final Research Achievements	This study estimates the logistics capabilities of the air transportation industry, which has export bases in the United States, EU, and Japan, which are the world's logistics centers. To this end, we are empirically comparing and verifying the competitive behavior of shippers, forwarders, etc. in 11 countries or regions that act based on each export base from the two axes of expected freight rates and direct investment. In doing so, this analysis highlights the marginal market, where air-sea mode alternative behaviors are amplified and appear more clearly. The conclusion obtained as a result is that while the EU has the highest advantage as a logistics base in terms of fairness and rationality, the US base model is a strong selection type that selects regional forwarders by their direct investment power. In addition, the Japanese base model is a weak selection type that selects by business model construction ability.
Free Research Field	商学・経営学
Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements	本研究における空海代替行動分析は、海運ロジスティクス行動によって空運ロジスティクス競争力を割り引いて求めた空運ロジスティクスの実質競争力を推定することによって、従来のアンケート調査分析や企業レベルの競争分析を超えて、国・地域レベルでの競争力をコンパクトな計量モデルで迅速に推定分析することを可能にしたものであり、それは本研究をもって嚆矢とする。また本研究の分析モデルの現実適合性がきわめて高く、モデルの優れた汎用性が実証されたので、本モデルを応用して自国の重要な競争相手に的を絞った比較的小規模なサンプルの競争力構造を推定すれば、国家のロジスティクス政策の迅速な立案に資することができる。