Adaptation to water resource risks due to climate change: analysis of the past and future 120 years in the Tone River Basin

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K06304
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 41030:Rural environmental engineering and planning-related
• Research Institution: National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
• Principal Investigator: Yoshida Takeo 国立研究開発法人農業・食品産業技術総合研究機構, 農村工学研究部門, 上級研究員 (80414449)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 水資源 / 気候変動 / 農業用水 / 水文モデル / キャリブレーション

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A distributed water cycle model that integrates agricultural water use and the natural water cycle was applied to the Tone River system to evaluate the effects of climate change on the drought period and cumulative drought volume. To improve the accuracy of the model, parameters were identified using a newly developed method, and the accuracy of runoff estimation was improved and the robustness of the identified parameters was confirmed. Next, snow water equivalent and irrigation season drought indices were evaluated for each of five periods from the present to the future. The snow water equivalent showed a consistent downward trend over the 150-year period, indicating a trend of decreasing small-scale droughts and increasing large-scale and long-term droughts. The characteristic drought patterns indicate that droughts that used to occur in summer are now occurring earlier in the year.

Free Research Field

水文学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

今後、累積渇水量を貯水池により開発すべき水資源と捉え、ハード的な適応策に必要なコスト評価を行う。また、渇水期間を農業用水の取水制限の期間やその頻度として、適応に要する農業者の社会経済的なコストに換算することにより適応策の評価に繋げる