Quantitative macroeconomic study on the U.S. childcare market.

2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K13678
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: Kubota So 早稲田大学, 政治経済学術院, 准教授(任期付) (00814352)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2022-03-31
• Keywords: 保育市場 / 女性労働 / 給付金 / 消費 / ライフサイクルモデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this project, I have mainly studied the macroeconomic approach on family economics.
My main topic is the long-term trend of the child care market in the United States. I first find a sharp increase in the child care price in the late 1990s. I show that a massive expansion of federal and state means-tested child care subsidies, which were intended to stimulate the market, instead crowded out child care supply. A simple calibrated equilibrium model captures these effects. I also extended it to a rich life-cycle model and incorporate other taxes and benefits.
Given the COVID-19 recession hit worldwide, I also started a new project about household consumption behaviors. In particular, I study the marginal propensity of consumption (MPC) to Japan’s COVID-19 unconditional cash transfer program. I used a natural experiment about the timing of transfer caused by administrative procedures. Interestingly, the MPC is almost homogeneous over family size and family type.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

メインの米国保育市場の分析について、大きな学術的意義は政策が意図しない逆の効果をもたらす可能性を見いだしたことにある。具体的には、保育需要側への補助として行われた給付が、保育供給側である、子供のいる保育士の行動を変化させてしまったことである。これは、政策を考える上で一般均衡的効果を考慮することの重要性を示唆する。また、社会的意義については、米国の保育料高騰問題について、需要側への補助ではなく、保育供給側への補助、特に伝統的な家庭的保育を活用することが有効な解決策だと見いだしたことにある。