Business Cycles, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Monetary Policies in Emerging Economies

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K13701
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Kyoto Sangyo University (2021-2023); Kyoto University of Advanced Science (2019-2020)
• Principal Investigator: Akihiko Ikeda 京都産業大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (20825799)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 小国開放経済 / 国際金融 / 金融政策 / 為替相場制度 / 為替レート / 借入制約

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The main results of this project are summarized as follows: First, analyses using small-open-economy real business cycle models revealed that learning-by-doing effects and industrial structures in emerging economies may cause the characteristic business cycle features in these economies. Second, through analyses with small-open-economy models incorporating a borrowing constraint, it was shown that monetary policies aimed at stabilizing exchange rates can amplify the effects of foreign interest rate shocks, while monetary policies that stabilize collateral prices may alleviate difficulties in borrowing from abroad. Finally, using an exchange economy model with a borrowing constraint, it was demonstrated that international cooperation on foreign reserves may reduce exchange rate volatility and enhance the welfare of member countries.

Free Research Field

国際マクロ経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

新興国の世界経済におけるプレゼンスが拡大する中、その景気循環は世界的な関心事となっている。特に通貨価値の変動や資本移動の不安定性は他国への波及効果も大きいため、安定化のための施策を考えることは先進国にとっても重要な課題である。本研究プロジェクトの成果は以上の論点に関して現象の要因を説明し、政策効果の例を提示するものである。さらに、近年では日本でも急激な円安やエネルギー価格高騰による物価変動が問題となりつつあることから為替や物価の安定化の重要性が増しており、その議論においても本研究の成果を活用できる可能性がある。