A systematic assessment on the seasonality of mortality: a multicountry time series study

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K19461
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
• Research Institution: Nagasaki University
• Principal Investigator: MADANIYAZI Lina 長崎大学, 熱帯医学・グローバルヘルス研究科, 助教 (30835195)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: Seasonality / Mortality / Temperature / Climate change / Multi countries / Time series study

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The project's objective was to systematically assess seasonal variations in mortality and investigate the impact of temperature across more than 700 cities worldwide. This endeavor resulted in the publication of four research papers in reputable international peer-reviewed journals. Additionally, the project findings were presented at various domestic and international seminars and conferences, fostering collaborations with researchers in the field of planetary health on a global scale.

In brief, the project's outcomes revealed two key insights: firstly, locations with temperate and continental climates exhibit the most pronounced seasonal variation in mortality. Secondly, temperature emerges as a significant factor driving this seasonal variation in mortality. Moreover, the findings imply that ongoing climate warming has the potential to alter seasonal patterns in mortality in the future.

Free Research Field

Environmental epidemiology

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

この研究は、季節ごとの死亡率と気温の役割を包括的かつ体系的に調査する、科学的にも初めての国際的な研究です。この研究は、温暖化する気候下での異なる季節における保健資源の配分に関する重要な公衆衛生上の示唆を提供している。