Implementation of road impassability map based on flood prediction using data assimilation

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K20414
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 62020:Web informatics and service informatics-related
• Research Institution: Kyoto University (2020-2023); Nagoya University (2019)
• Principal Investigator: Hiroi Kei 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (30734644)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 氾濫推定 / 可視化システム / 時空間統計

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This research developed a system to present roads that become impassable during floods for the purpose of presenting safe evacuation routes and evacuation timing. (1) As a detailed space flood level monitoring time-series prediction methods, water level prediction of monitoring locations based on flood analysis simulations of past heavy rainfall cases, using known observation data. (2) Developed prediction methods and parameter compensation methods using ensemble Kalman filters, (3) Developed a prototype of a presentation system and application for the measurement results, and conducted a virtual experiment and evacuation simulation using VR.

Free Research Field

情報工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

中小河川・水路からの氾濫 (内水氾濫)は水害初期から発生するが、この氾濫を検知する観測機器は未だ整備されていない。内水氾濫の発生源である中小河川の観測機器と危険箇所の氾濫予測手法をを拡張し、(1)水位観測データをもとにしたデータ同化による市街地全域の冠水位観測、(2)予測結果を用いた通行不可能となる道路の予測、(3)マップ上に提示するシステムの開発を行ない、目標とした河川観測が行われていない地域の道路の冠水位とその拡大過程の予測および道路の通行可否を推定するシステムの開発を達成できた。