2021 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Do Asian Traditional Calendars Predict Extreme Weather Events?
| Project/Area Number |
19K21663
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Medium-sized Section 4:Geography, cultural anthropology, folklore, and related fields
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| Research Institution | Kyoto University |
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Principal Investigator |
Furusawa Takuro 京都大学, アジア・アフリカ地域研究研究科, 教授 (50422457)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
小谷 真吾 千葉大学, 大学院人文科学研究院, 教授 (90375600)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2019-06-28 – 2022-03-31
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| Keywords | 異常気象 / 伝統文化 / 暦 / インドネシア / MODIS / 植生変化 / ゴカイ類 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We examined whether the traditional calendar systems used for subsistence farming in various parts of Asia could predict abnormal weather events such as high or low rainfall and strong winds that differ from the normal year, using a combination of field and literature surveys and satellite image analysis over a period of 20 years. The Western Sumba calendar, a luni-solar calendar that incorporates a natural calendar, was considered suitable for predicting the weather conditions of the year and adapting livelihoods to natural conditions by observing natural conditions during specific seasons and comparing them with those of a normal year. The Balinese calendar, a highly structured luni-solar calendar, is thought to have moderated vegetation fluctuations regardless of weather conditions due to large-scale paddy rice cultivation with systematic water management system. However, some calendar systems are not suitable for global climate change and modern agriculture.
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| Free Research Field |
人類生態学、東南アジア地域研究
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| Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements |
本研究は、伝統暦法を文化や歴史の観点だけではなく、各地で起こってきた異常気象の予知に役立ってきたメカニズムを解明したという点で、独創的であった。また、現在の地球規模気候変動に、伝統暦法が役立てられるかを探ったという点で、挑戦的であった。伝統暦法の中には、現代の暮らしや、気候にはなじまなくなり、その知恵が失われていくものもある。しかし、今後地球規模の気候変動が進む場合には、過去の自然状態を理解したうえで、新しい状態を予知していくことが必要になるため、伝統暦法のメカニズム解明は過去の自然状態＝「平年値」を示すことができたという点で、社会に大きな貢献をした。
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