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2019 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

The leapfrog effect of social media for new technology product

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 19K23187
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section 0107:Economics, business administration, and related fields
Research InstitutionTohoku University

Principal Investigator

Yinxing Li  東北大学, 経済学研究科, 特任助教 (00845084)

Project Period (FY) 2019-08-30 – 2020-03-31
Keywordsマーケティング / Bassモデル / ベイズ / 階層モデル
Outline of Final Research Achievements

1. By involving the hierarchical structure in the Bass Model, it is possible to make prediction before the new product launch to the market. 2. As we incorporate the Dynamic Topic Model, which is one of the famous algorithms in machine learning, we not only improved the precision of the forecasting, but also improves the interpretability of the model. Rather than generally explain the role of topic model, we find that social media information can have opposite effect before and after the product released. 3. In empirical application, we also proved the social media accelerate the leap frog effect.

Free Research Field

マーケティング

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

1.今ブームであるビッグデータ分析と異なり、マーケティングでは、商品の発売前後など、数値データが限られている場合が多く、その場合、限られたデータでの分析や予測は非常に難しい課題であるが、ソーシャルメディアに存在する膨大な口コミ情報を用いれば、数値データ
2.また、機械学習で重視される予測にとどまらず、口コミと売り上げとの関係性をさらに分析可能なモデリングを構築したことで、口コミの発売前後の異なる反応なども観測することができた。

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Published: 2021-02-19  

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