Epidemiological study for seasonality change of respiratory syncytial virus epidemics: risk factor analysis and mathematical modeling

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 19K24219
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: 0908:Society medicine, nursing, and related fields
• Research Institution: Osaka Institute of Public Health
• Principal Investigator: MIYAMA Takeshi 地方独立行政法人 大阪健康安全基盤研究所, 公衆衛生部, 研究員 (30846241)
• Project Period (FY): 2019-08-30 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: RSウイルス感染症 / 感染症疫学 / 新型コロナウイルス感染症 / 早期探知 / 実効再生産数 / 流行期判定 / 流行予測

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Detecting respiratory infectious disease epidemics as early as possible is crucial for implementing planned administration of preventive medication and ensuring accurate diagnosis. In this research, our objective was to gain a comprehensive understanding of infection dynamics by monitoring the effective reproduction number and establishing a reference value for the onset of the epidemic period. Additionally, we investigated the impact of COVID-19 countermeasures on the dynamics of RSV infections using a mathematical model, and projected the potential size of the epidemic in 2022 and 2023. The study indicated that the timing and magnitude of epidemic can be influenced by the number of individuals susceptible to infection and the risk of infection.

Free Research Field

感染症疫学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究で得られたRSV感染症流行の流行開始基準値を用いて流行期を周知することで、感染リスクのある集団の感染予防の意識を高め、重症化リスクの高い集団は予防薬（流行期において月1回の投与が必要）を計画的に投与することができる。また、流行規模の予測は、医療体制にとって有用な情報となり得る。効率的な感染症の予防及び医療体制の整備は、重症例数の抑制に貢献すると考えられる。