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2011 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Effects of the quasi biennial oscillation in the tropics on interannual variations of atmosphere and chemistry in the extratropics

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 20340129
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionJapan, Meteorological Research Institute

Principal Investigator

SHIBATA Kiyotaka  気象庁気象研究所, 環境・応用気象研究部, 室長 (50354494)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) KURODA Yuhji  気象庁気象研究所, 気候研究部, 主任研究官 (80343888)
YAMAZAKI Kohji  北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 教授 (70270791)
Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) DEUSHI Makoto  気象庁気象研究所, 環境・応用気象研究部, 研究官 (00354499)
Project Period (FY) 2008 – 2011
Keywords大気現象 / 熱帯準二年振動(QBO) / 成層圏 / オゾン / 年々変動 / 中高緯度
Research Abstract

Effects of the quasi biennial oscillation(QBO) in the tropics on interannual variations of atmosphere and chemistry in the extratropics were investigated with data of a chemistry-climate model(MRI-CCM) and the ERA-40 Reanalysis. It was found that the conventional Holton-Tan explanation that the equatorial winds in the lower stratosphere act as a waveguide for midlatitude planetary wave propagation cannot explain the winter circulation in either the ERA-40 data or the simulation. Although the composite differences in zonal wind and temperature show a slight yet statistically significant Holton-Tan effect, i. e., the stratospheric polar vortex is weaker and more disturbed under easterly QBO conditions, the EP-flux diagnostics do not show more poleward propagation in the midlatitude stratosphere. Rather, planetary waves propagate more equatorward as well as more upward during the easterly phase of the QBO. Further, future projection of the QBO and its effect on the extratropics was also investigated with the MRI-CCM.

  • Research Products

    (57 results)

All 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

All Journal Article (34 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 34 results) Presentation (23 results)

  • [Journal Article] Future changes in the quasi-biennial oscillation under a greenhouse gas increase and ozone recovery in transient simulations by a chemistry-climate model2012

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K. and M. Deushi
    • Journal Title

      Greenhouse Gases-Emission, Measurement and Management

      Pages: 355-386

    • URL

      http://www.intechopen.com/books/howtoreference/greenhouse-gases-emission-measurement-and-management/future-changes-in-the-quasi-biennial-oscillation-under-a-greenhouse-gas-increase-and-ozone-recovery-

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Future changes in the influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the northern polar vortex simulated with an MRI chemistry climate model2012

    • Author(s)
      Naoe, H. and K. Shibata
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 117 Pages: D03102

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2011JD016255.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The nature of Arctic polar vortices in chemistry-climate models2012

    • Author(s)
      Mitchell, D. M., K. Shibata(10番目), 他10名
    • Journal Title

      J. R. Meteorol

    • DOI

      DOI:10.1002/qj.1909.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of dynamical contribution to lower stratospheric ozone trends in northern mid-latitudes over the last three decades(1980-2006) using a chemical transport model2011

    • Author(s)
      Kobayashi, C. and K. Shibata
    • Journal Title

      J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn

      Volume: 89 Pages: 363-376

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Improved predictability of the troposphere NAO using stratospheric final warmings2011

    • Author(s)
      Hardiman, S. C., K. Shibata(15番目), 他13名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 116 Pages: D18113

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2011JD015914.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Using transport diagnostics to understand Chemistry Climate Model ozone simulations2011

    • Author(s)
      Strahan, S. E., K. Shibata(28番目), 他30名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 116 Pages: D17302

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010JD015360.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century : impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects2011

    • Author(s)
      Bais, A. F., K. Shibata(24番目), 他24名
    • Journal Title

      Atmos. Chem. Phys

      Volume: 11 Pages: 10769-10797

    • DOI

      doi:10.5194/acpd-11-10769-2011.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Sudden changes in the tropical stratospheric and tropospheric circulation during January 20092011

    • Author(s)
      Kodera, K., N. Eguchi, J-N. Lee, Y. Kuroda, and S. Yukimoto
    • Journal Title

      J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn

      Volume: 89 Pages: 283-290

    • DOI

      doi:10.2151/jmsj.2011-308.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Role of medium-scale waves on the Southern Annular Mode2011

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, Y., and H. Mukougawa
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 116 Pages: D22107

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010JD016293.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impacts of increases in greenhouse gases and ozone recovery on lower stratospheric circulation and the age of air : Chemistry-climate model simulations up to 21002011

    • Author(s)
      Deushi, M. and K. Shibata
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 116 Pages: D10302

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010JD01536.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A general circulation model study of the impact of a stratospheric sudden warming event on tropical convection2011

    • Author(s)
      Kodera, K., H. Mukougawa, and Y. Kuroda
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 7 Pages: 197-200

    • DOI

      doi:10.2151/sola.2011-050.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Tropical cooling in the case of stratospheric sudden warming in January 2009 : focus on the tropical tropopause layer2011

    • Author(s)
      Yoshida, K., and K. Yamazaki
    • Journal Title

      Atmos. Chem. Phys

      Volume: 11 Pages: 6325-6336

    • DOI

      doi:10.5194/acp-11-6325-2011.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multi-model assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century2010

    • Author(s)
      Oman, L. D., K. Shibata(32番目), 他33名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D24306

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010JD014362.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multi-Model Assessment of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere : Extra-tropics2010

    • Author(s)
      Hegglin, M. I., K. Shibata(42番目), 他44名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D00M09

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010JD013884.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Evidence for Changes in Stratospheric Transport and Mixing Over the Past Three Decades Based on Multiple Datasets and Tropical Leaky Pipe Analysis2010

    • Author(s)
      Ray, E. A., K. Shibata(15番目), 他14名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D21304

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010JD014206.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The decline and recovery of total column ozone using a multi-model time series analysis2010

    • Author(s)
      Austin, J., K. Shibata(32番目), 他33名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D00M10

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010JD013857

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The Impact of stratospheric ozone on southern hemisphere circulation change : A multimodel assessment2010

    • Author(s)
      Son, S.-W, K. Shibata(37番目), 他39名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D00M07

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010JD014271.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone2010

    • Author(s)
      Austin, J., K. Shibata(35番目), 他36名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D00M11

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2009JD013577.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Quantifying uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century2010

    • Author(s)
      Charlton-Perez, A. J., K. Shibata(27番目), 他28名
    • Journal Title

      Atmos. Chem. Phys

      Volume: 10 Pages: 9473-9486

    • DOI

      doi:10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models2010

    • Author(s)
      Eyring, V., K. Shibata(27番目), 他33名
    • Journal Title

      Atmos. Chem. Phys

      Volume: 10 Pages: 9451-9472

    • DOI

      doi:10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multi-model assessment of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere : Tropics and global trends2010

    • Author(s)
      Gettelman, A., K. Shibata(35番目), 他36名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D00M08

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2009JD013638.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Influence of the solar cycle and QBO modulation on the Southern Annular Mode2010

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, Y., and K. Yamazaki
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Letters

      Volume: 37 Pages: L12703

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2010GL043252.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Anthropogenic forcing of the Northern Annular Mode in CCMVal-models2010

    • Author(s)
      Morgenstern, O., K. Shibata(28番目), 他32名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D00M03

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2009JD013347.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Review of the formulation of present generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings2010

    • Author(s)
      Morgenstern, O., K. Shibata(3番目), 他38名
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D00M02

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2009JD013728.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Chemistry-climate model simulations of 21st century stratospheric climate and circulation changes2010

    • Author(s)
      Butchart, N., K. Shibata(28番目), 他28名
    • Journal Title

      J. Clim

      Volume: 23 Pages: 5349-5374

    • DOI

      doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3404.1.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation influence on the northern winter extratropical circulation2010

    • Author(s)
      Naoe, H. and K. Shibata
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D19102

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2009JD012952.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Chemistry climate models and scenarios, Chapter 2 in SPARC CCMVal Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models2010

    • Author(s)
      Morgenstern, O., K. Shibata(3番目), 他30名
    • Journal Title

      SPARC Report

      Volume: No.5 Pages: 17-70, 434

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Role of vertical eddy heat flux in the response of tropical tropopause temperature to changes in tropical sea surface temperature2010

    • Author(s)
      Yoshida, K., and K. Yamazaki
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 115 Pages: D01108

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2009JD012783.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Northern winter stratospheric temperature and ozone responses to ENSO inferred from an ensemble of Chemistry Climate Models2009

    • Author(s)
      Cagnazzo, C., M. Deushi(9番目), K. Shibata(17番目)
    • Journal Title

      Atmos. Chem. Phys

      Volume: 9 Pages: 8935-8948

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent pas2009

    • Author(s)
      Austin, J., K. Shibata(17番目), 他20名
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett

      Volume: 36 Pages: L13809

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2009GL038462.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The tropical tropopause layer 1960-21002009

    • Author(s)
      Gettelman, A., K. Shibata(11番目), 他15名
    • Journal Title

      Atmos. Chem. Phys

      Volume: 9 Pages: 1621-1637

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Influence of Stratospheric Circulation on the Predictability of the Tropospheric Northern Annular Mode2009

    • Author(s)
      Mukougawa, H., T. Hirooka and Y. Kuroda
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Letters

      Volume: 36 Pages: L08814

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2008GL037127.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980-2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute2008

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K. and M. Deushi
    • Journal Title

      Annales Geophysicae

      Volume: 26 Pages: 1299-1326

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Effect of stratospheric sudden warming and vortex intensification on the tropospheric climate2008

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, Y
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 113 Pages: D15110

    • DOI

      doi:10.1029/2007JD009550.

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Impact of stratospheric sudden warming on the predictability of tropospheric NAM variability, Workshop on stratospheric sudden warming and its role in weather and climate variations2012

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, Y
    • Organizer
      Workshop on stratospheric sudden warming and its role in weather and climate variations
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-02-24
  • [Presentation] Impacts of global warming and ozone recovery on stratospheric sudden warming in transient simulations of a chemistry-climate model2012

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K. and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      Workshop on stratospheric sudden warming and its role in weather and climate variations
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-02-24
  • [Presentation] Role of Ultra-violet radiation on the stratosphere-troposphere coupling of the Southern Annular Mode2012

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, Y
    • Organizer
      2^<nd> Nagoya workshop on the relationship between solar activity and climate change
    • Place of Presentation
      Nagoya, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-01-17
  • [Presentation] Solar signals in MRI-CCM simulations under transient forcings for SST and GHGs but a perpetual solar max condition2012

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K
    • Organizer
      2^<nd> Nagoya workshop on the relationship between solar activity and climate change
    • Place of Presentation
      Nagoya, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-01-16
  • [Presentation] Effects of greenhouse gas increase and ozone recovery on lower stratospheric circulation and the age of air as revealed by chemistry-climate model simulations up to 21002011

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K. and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      11^<th> EMS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Berlin, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-12
  • [Presentation] Future change in the quasi-biennial oscillation influence on the northern polar vortex simulated with an MRI chemistry climate model2011

    • Author(s)
      Naoe, H. and K. Shibata
    • Organizer
      IUGG General Assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Melbourne, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2011-07-06
  • [Presentation] Evaluation of the separate effects of stratospheric ozone assimilation and total ozone assimilation, and their impacts on the predictability of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone2011

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K., M. Deushi, and C. Kobayashi
    • Organizer
      8th SPARC Data Assimilation workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Brussels, Belgium
    • Year and Date
      2011-06-20
  • [Presentation] Gravity wave drag effects on the future quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere under greenhouse gas increase up to year 2100 : Simulations with a chemistry-climate model2011

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K. and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      AGU Chapman Conference on Atmospheric Gravity Waves and Their Effects on General Circulation and Climate
    • Place of Presentation
      Honolulu, USA
    • Year and Date
      2011-03-02
  • [Presentation] Tropical cooling in the case of stratospheric sudden warming in January 2009 : focus on the tropical tropopause layer2010

    • Author(s)
      Yoshida, K. and K. Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      2010 AGU Fall meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      San Francisco, USA
    • Year and Date
      2010-12-15
  • [Presentation] Projection of future behavior of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere under the greenhouse gas increase2010

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K., and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      SPARC DynVar Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Boulder, USA
    • Year and Date
      2010-11-04
  • [Presentation] Effects of the greenhouse gas increase to the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere up to year 2100 as simulated with the chemistry-climate model of Meteorological Research Institute2010

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K., and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      10th EMS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Zurich, Switzerland
    • Year and Date
      2010-09-15
  • [Presentation] Effects of quasi-biennial oscillation on the northern winter extratropical circulation2010

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K. and H. Naoe
    • Organizer
      38th COSPAR Scientific Assembly 20100725
    • Place of Presentation
      Bremen, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2010-07-25
  • [Presentation] Effect of sea surface temperature on the solar signal in the stratosphere and troposphere as revealed by chemistry-climate model simulations from 1960 to 20062010

    • Author(s)
      Shibata K. and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      SCOSTEP Symposium STP12
    • Place of Presentation
      Berlin, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2010-07-15
  • [Presentation] Influence of the solar cycle and QBO modulation on the Southern Annular Mode2010

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, Y. and K. Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      SCOSTEP Symposium STP12
    • Place of Presentation
      Berlin, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2010-07-13
  • [Presentation] Projection of the ozone quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere up to year 2100 as simulated with the chemistry-climate model of Meteorological Research Institute2010

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K., and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      12th Symposium of the CACGP and 11th Science Conference of IGAC Project
    • Place of Presentation
      Halifax, Canada
    • Year and Date
      2010-07-13
  • [Presentation] The equatorial QBO influence on the northern winter extratropical circulation2010

    • Author(s)
      Naoe, H. and K. Shibata
    • Organizer
      90^<th> AMS Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Atlanta, USA
    • Year and Date
      2010-01-19
  • [Presentation] Ensemble Kalman filter assimilation of atmospheric chemical constituents data with a MRI chemistry-climate model : OSS Experiment2009

    • Author(s)
      Deushi, M., T. Sekiyama, and K. Shibata
    • Organizer
      5^<th> WMO International Symposium on Data Assimilation
    • Place of Presentation
      Melbourne, Australia
    • Year and Date
      2009-10-07
  • [Presentation] Development of an MRI chemistry-climate model coupled with data assimilation system for ozone forecast, MOCA-092009

    • Author(s)
      Deushi, M. and K. Shibata
    • Organizer
      The Joint Assembly of IAMAS, IAPSO and IACS
    • Place of Presentation
      Montreal, Canada
    • Year and Date
      2009-07-22
  • [Presentation] Duration of NAM in the simulation of a chemistry-climate model driven by observed forcings2009

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K., and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      EGU 2009 General Assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Year and Date
      2009-04-22
  • [Presentation] Role of the vertical eddy heat flux in the tropical tropopause temperature response to tropical sea surface temperature changes2009

    • Author(s)
      Yoshida, K. and K. Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      EGU 2009 General Assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Year and Date
      2009-04-21
  • [Presentation] Influence of solar cycle and QBO modulation on the Southern Annular Mode2009

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, Y. and K. Yamazaki
    • Organizer
      SOLARIS 2009 Workshop
    • Place of Presentation
      Potsdam, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2009-03-11
  • [Presentation] Effects of the eruption of Mount Pinatubo on the quasi-biennial oscillation as revealed with MRI chemistry-climate model2008

    • Author(s)
      Deushi, M. and K. Shibata
    • Organizer
      SPARC 4th General Assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Bologna, Italy
    • Year and Date
      2008-09-04
  • [Presentation] Spatial structure of the quasi-biennial oscillation in zonal wind and ozone simulated with the MRI-CCM2008

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, K. and M. Deushi
    • Organizer
      SPARC 4th General Assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Bologna, Italy
    • Year and Date
      2008-09-04

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Published: 2013-07-31  

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