2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Study on temporal and spatial patterns of influenza epidemics
| Project/Area Number |
20590609
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Hygiene
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| Research Institution | Sapporo Medical University |
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Principal Investigator |
SUMI Ayako Sapporo Medical University, 医学部, 講師 (10363699)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KAMO Kenichi 札幌医科大学, 医療人育成センター, 准教授 (10404740)
KOBAYASHI Nobumichi 札幌医科大学, 医学部, 教授 (80186759)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2008 – 2010
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| Keywords | 感染症 / ウイルス / 衛生 / 統計数学 / 生物物理 / インフルエンザ |
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| Research Abstract |
We obtained the following two main results : (i) Time series analysis for incidence data of influenza revealed that the amount of amplitude of the interepidemic periods increased during the occurrence of influenza pandemics and decreased when vaccine programs were introduced. The finding suggests that the temporal behavior of the interepidemic periods of influenza epidemics is correlated with the magnitude of cross-reactive immune responses. (ii)Based on the result of time series analysis, we successfully predicted the incidence of influenza quantitatively.
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