Evaluation and prediction of the resilience of biological communities under global environmental change

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20H03010
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 39060:Conservation of biological resources-related
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Kadoya Taku 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 生物多様性領域, 室長 (40451843)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 鈴木 健大 国立研究開発法人理化学研究所, バイオリソース研究センター, 開発研究員 (00748999)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 生物多様性 / 生物群集 / 生物間相互作用 / 安定性

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The impacts of global environmental changes, such as climate change and land use intensification and abandonment, on ecosystems are becoming increasingly apparent. This study aims to create a general framework for predicting the response of ecosystems to global change. Specifically, we aimed to (1) utilize a simultaneous distribution estimation model that explicitly considers the interactions among the many organisms that make up a community, (2) extend Energy Landscape Analysis recently introduced to the area of ecological research to evaluate and quantify the stability of community composition, which has been a difficult task, especially at large scales. In addition, we applied and verified the above methods to microbial communities, and to freshwater fish communities of which observation data were collected in Japan, Europe, and North America.

Free Research Field

保全生態学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は、生態系の環境応答予測の普遍的な枠組みを構築することで、生物群集内の生物間相互作用を明示的に考慮し、これまで理論や実験等では困難であった複雑な野外群集全体を対象として安定性の広域的な定量化や安定性自体の環境依存性の解明につながる方法論を確立した。