The Impact of Skill-Biased Technological Progress and Demographic Change on Macro Performance

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K01635
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Gakushuin University
• Principal Investigator: TAKIZAWA MIHO 学習院大学, 経済学部, 教授 (50509247)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 生産性 / 高齢化 / 人的資本

Outline of Final Research Achievements

By what mechanism do demographic changes affect economic growth? An analysis of changes in the age structure within firms due to early and voluntary retirement reveals that the announcement of early and voluntary retirement biases the age distribution of employees toward middle-aged and older workers. If creativity declines with age, the loss of younger workers could undermine the future of innovation in firms.
Next, regarding human capital investment, we conducted a questionnaire survey and found that the percentage of respondents who answered "no implementation" of human capital investment in both OJT and OFF-JT has increased due to the spread of the COVID-19. As in many previous studies, we also found a positive correlation between productivity and human capital investment.

Free Research Field

経済政策

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の学術的独自性と創造性については、これまで直感的に、あるいはマクロのデータを用いて行われてきた人口動態の変化が経済成長に与える影響について、詳細なミクロ（企業や事業所）レベルデータを用いて、実証的に分析を試みた点にあると言える。
具体的には、改正高年齢者雇用安定法の施行や早期希望退職といったイベントを使用し、企業内の年齢構成変化が企業の資源配分やパフォーマンスに与える影響について分析をしている。また、近年注目が集まっている人的資本投資についても、アンケート調査を実施することで定量化し、その生産性への影響を分析している。