Fiscal Multiplier under Secular Stagnation: A Comparison between the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K01706
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07050:Public economics and labor economics-related
• Research Institution: Kobe University
• Principal Investigator: Miyazaki Tomomi 神戸大学, 経済学研究科, 教授 (20410673)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 公共投資

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We aim to examine the effects of disaster relief on employment recovery. To do this, we focus on the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the Great East Japan Earthquake. Regarding the former, we did not show statistically significant effects on regional employment. With respect to the Great East Japan Earthquake, while simple difference-in-differences estimation does not necessarily show statistically significant results, the estimation results using some matching techniques are robust. Our results suggest that the natural disaster relief for the Great East Japan Earthquake could contribute to employment recovery in afflicted areas, contrary to some theoretical assumptions that fiscal expansion depresses private-sector employment. One reason is that the crowding-out effects triggered by interest hike might not occur given the zero-lower bound environment.

Free Research Field

公共経済学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

昨今、震災復興投資に関する研究は、多くの研究者の関心を集めている。金融政策がゼロ金利制約に直面している期間と、それ以外の期間での財政政策の効果の違いは多くの経済学者が指摘しているものの、復興投資の効果を比較した研究は試みられていないようである。近年地域データを用いた財政乗数の計測も試みられるようになったものの、基礎自治体レベルの研究は例が少ない。
以上を踏まえると、本研究は、①多くの研究者が着目する震災復興策に焦点をあて、②ゼロ金利とそれ以外の期間における財政乗数の比較を、③先行研究が稀である基礎自治体レベルを対象に試みる、との点で学術的・社会的に意義があるものと考えられよう。