Research on the Persistence of Managerial Forecast Errors and Efficiency of Real Investments

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K02029
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 07100:Accounting-related
• Research Institution: Hannan University
• Principal Investigator: Chujo Yoshimi 阪南大学, 経営情報学部, 教授 (00387383)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 経営者予想誤差 / 持続性 / 実物投資

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this study, I analyzed methods for measuring managerial ability from accounting information. In doing so, I found that a variety of evaluation methods have been developed, making use of generally available information. The superiority of these indicators is contested according to the degree to which they correlate with ex-ante indicators, such as market evaluations, and ex-post indicators, such as management performance.
When discussing managerial ability, it is necessary to focus on the information processing ability, including whether an efficient internal control is established, among other things, and the construction of objective indicators of such ability is required. I proposed that the degree to which the optimistic and pessimistic errors in management forecasts persist over multiple periods can be an appropriate, albeit simple, candidate for such a measure.

Free Research Field

財務会計

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究では、経営者の能力をいかに測定するかという古典的な問題に対して、経営者予想誤差の観点から接近した。実績利益の確定によって判明する経営者予想の誤差は、経営者の学習を前提とすれば、一定の方向性をもって持続することは考えにくい。しかし、楽観的もしくは悲観的な予想には持続性が認められ、そこに経営者の情報処理能力の問題を読み取ることができる。企業が手掛ける実物投資は、将来の収益見通しをもとに実行される。したがって、将来における投資の成否は、現在の経営者の情報処理能力に依存する。本研究では、経営者予想誤差から読み取られる経営者の情報処理能力が、実物投資の成否を占う試金石となることを明らかにした。