The construction of a mathematical model to estimate the transition and the number of business establishments in Tokyo Bay area

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K02167
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 08010:Sociology-related
• Research Institution: Hosei University
• Principal Investigator: Sakamoto Noriaki 法政大学, 経済学部, 教授 (70386324)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 地域研究 / コンパクトシティ / 郵便局難民 / 事業所数 / 東京湾岸地域 / 団地 / 待ち行列 / Google検索

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study defined the compact city, presented that this definition applies to "Danchi", large-scale apartment buildings and Tokyo Bay area, and surveyed other sites, including overseas. We focused on offices indispensable for daily lives in a compact city. We employed a mathematical model that estimates the number of offices, using residential area and population as parameters, to determine an adequate number of offices per population size. Because there was no official statistical data available on the office counts, which was required to build the mathematical model, utilizing Google was suggested to obtain the counts and the data reliability was verified. We proposed a method to simulate queuing at post offices in Tokyo Bay area and reproduced the congestion. The results raised the inaccessibility issue of post offices and raised the problem of postal refugees.

Free Research Field

地域研究

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

狭義のコンパクトシティに該当しない行政区分の区や市，10万都市などの人口規模であれば統計情報のほかさまざまな知見や研究事例があるが，本研究のコンパクトシティの人口規模では事業所数などのデータ取得の難しさを要因のひとつとしてほとんど発表されていない。本研究は小地域に該当する人口規模を対象とした数少ない研究成果である。さらに，本研究において，郵便局難民を提起し，東京湾岸地域で該当する地域が存在し，今後懸念がある地域も明らかにした。