Evaluation analysis for the reconstruction of local medical service system in Japan

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K10383
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 58010:Medical management and medical sociology-related
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University of Science
• Principal Investigator: Tanikawa Takumi 北海道科学大学, 保健医療学部, 准教授 (40446539)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 地域医療 / 医療提供体制 / 医療サービス / 地理情報システム

Outline of Final Research Achievements

The purpose of this study is to clarify the changes in regional medical resources and patient accessibility to these resources in the context of future hospital bed conversions, shared use of medical resources, and consolidation of medical functions. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), population data at small-area and mesh levels, road network data, and medical institution data, we evaluated the travel time required for patients to visit medical facilities and assessed their geographical accessibility. Additionally, we constructed a regression model to predict the number of high-cost medical devices based on data such as the number of hospital beds and population figures. Using this model and future population projections, we estimated the future numbers of CT and MRI devices, highlighting the changes from the current situation in each secondary medical area.

Free Research Field

医療情報学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

わが国において人口減少が進み、医療費の財源が厳しさを増すなか、一定の公平性を満たしながら効率的な医療資源の配置を進めていくことが必要になっている。本研究では、地理情報システム（GIS）や多変量解析などを用いて医療資源の変化や、患者の地理的アクセシビリティを定量的に評価した。本研究によって得られた成果により、地域の医療提供体制の変化が地域医療に与える影響が具体的に明らかとなり、今後の医療政策や医療サービスを考えるうえでの基礎資料になるものと考えられる。