Impact assessment of climate change on future food security in Japan

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K12191
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 63040:Environmental impact assessment-related
• Research Institution: Fukushima University
• Principal Investigator: Yoshida Ryuhei 福島大学, 共生システム理工学類, 准教授 (70701308)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 西原 是良 東京大学, 大学院農学生命科学研究科(農学部), 助教 (20714893) ; 高橋 大輔 拓殖大学, 政経学部, 教授 (30619812)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動 / 作物生産

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We evaluated the impact of climate change on crop production. Using the latest climate prediction data from CMIP6 and the crop growth model CYGMA, we estimated the increase in maize yield in response to a government agricultural expenditure of $1 billion. The results indicate that under significant warming scenarios, yield growth will slow, particularly in low-income countries. Additionally, we found that if global warming is not mitigated, the quality of rice in Japan will deteriorate, and yield will decrease in Kyushu, potentially leading to lower production value compared to the current levels. It is essential to not only work towards mitigating climate change but also to promote adaptive strategies such as the development of heat-resistant crop varieties and adjustments to transplanting dates.

Free Research Field

農業気象学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

開発途上国を中心に世界の人口は増加を続けており，食糧生産性の向上を維持するために収量の増加が必要である．本研究は温暖化緩和の進捗によっては同じ農業研究開発投資や栽培方法であっても収量の増加が目減りあるいは減少へ転じることを示しており，気候変動に対する対策が急務であることを示している．また，収量や品質といった作物情報を生産額へと翻訳することで影響評価研究を発展させ，気候変動によって農作物が受ける影響の定量化を推進した．