Modeling human injury risk by Asiatic black bear to support building a wildlife management policy

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K12256
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 64040:Social-ecological systems-related
• Research Institution: Osaka University
• Principal Investigator: Machimura Takashi 大阪大学, 大学院工学研究科, 准教授 (30190383)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: ツキノワグマ / 人身事故リスク / MaxENT / 生息域変化 / エージェントベースモデル / 個体群動態 / 個体群管理 / 将来予測

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Human injuries by Asiatic black bears have been increasing over a few decades in Japan, especially in Tohoku. This study attempted to develop numerical models for use in human injury risk assessment and bear population management supporting the policy to reduce the risk. The first approach was the geographical human injury risk assessment applying the MaxENT model. Separated models by beech mast production levels achieved the better model predictivities. Predicted human injury risk was different between the rich- and poor-beech years. The second approach was the dynamic and spatially implicit bear population simulation using an agent-based model which simulates the autonomous behavior of agents. All experiment cases of food conditions and hunting rules reproduced the bear habitat expansion as observed. The cases showed the strong influence of the food condition change on population size and demonstrated the stabilization effect of population size by hunting.

Free Research Field

環境工学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究は負の生態系サービスである野生動物による被害、特に日本の一部地域では深刻なクマ類による人身事故リスクを対象とした研究である。野生動物被害対策は、被害軽減とともに動物個体群の保護を考慮する必要があり、具体的な施策立案実行において個体群管理方法（ゾーニング、頭数調整、駆除、奥山放獣など）の効果的な選択が困難である。本研究は数理的モデルを応用することで、人身事故リスク評価とその要因分析、要因変化・介入によるリスク変化予測、個体群管理による生息域と個体数の変化を定量的に示すことで、科学的な意思決定支援の可能性を示したものである。