Empirical Analysis on the Globalization of Firms and Labor Market

2022 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K13475
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: Fujii Daisuke 東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 特任講師 (00791253)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2023-03-31
• Keywords: 国際貿易 / 企業間ネットワーク / サプライチェーン / 波及効果 / コロナと経済 / COVI-19

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using a large-scale dataset on firm-level trade and firm-to-firm transactions, we found that direct exporters and importers experienced large negative shocks during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2009 and global coronavirus pandemic in 2020. It is confirmed that those negative shocks propagated to domestic suppliers via supply chains.

In the study of balancing infection control and economic activity during pandemic, we incorporated economic activity into a standard epidemiological model and estimated the economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) policies such as the declaration of emergency status. We also quantified the trade off between infection control and economic activity, and presented a policy menu. We found that the willingness to pay to prevent infection is very heterogeneous across countries.

Free Research Field

国際貿易、マクロ経済、ネットワーク

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

企業の貿易と国内市場という観点では、大規模な企業レベルのデータを用いて海外のリスクが国内の非貿易企業にも波及することを示した点は学術的意義が大きい。またコロナと経済というテーマでは緊急事態宣言やワクチン配布の経済的影響の定量化に取り組み、政策現場を含め広く社会に発信した。感染症対策はほとんどの個人の生活に影響するため、これらの政策メニューを提示したことは社会的意義が大きかったと考えられる。