Theoretical and empirical study of collective decision-making focusing on the timing of opinion statements in social networks

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K19929
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 62020:Web informatics and service informatics-related
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo (2022-2023); Rikkyo University (2020-2021)
• Principal Investigator: Ito Mariko 東京大学, 生産技術研究所, 特任助教 (80838847)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 集団意思決定 / 集合知 / 逐次的意思決定 / 複雑ネットワーク / 点過程

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We have empirically and theoretically investigated the relationship between the timing of individuals' decision-making and the accuracy of both individuals and the group. Through empirical analyses, we found that heterogeneity in the temporal distribution of opinion statements is associated with group accuracy. Additionally, we theoretically studied the sequential decision-making of individuals with varying abilities to independently find the correct answer. We successfully derived an algorithm for each individual to maximize their decision accuracy and identified the existence of “casting voters,” who contribute significantly to the group's collective intelligence.

Free Research Field

数理生物学，社会経済データ解析

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

本研究の成果は，より正確な集団意思決定を生み出すメカニズムの解明に貢献できると期待する．集団意思決定研究における大きな問題の一つは，人々の社会的相互作用が引き起こす意見間の相関が集団意思決定の質に悪影響を与えることである．近年，社会的相互作用下での各個人の最適意思決定や意見集約方法について盛んに議論されている．本研究では，人々の意思表明タイミングが，意見間の相関関係や集団意思決定の正確さに多大に影響を与えることを示すことができた．