Development of a Lifetime Cost Estimation Model for Community-based integrated Care System

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 20K20783
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 8:Sociology and related fields
• Research Institution: University of Hyogo
• Principal Investigator: Tsutsui Takako 兵庫県立大学, 社会科学研究科, 教授 (20300923)
• Project Period (FY): 2020-07-30 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 介護給付 / 介護サービス / 医療サービス / 生涯介護費用 / 地域包括ケアシステム / 生涯費用推計モデル / 要介護高齢者 / 予測モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We analyzed factors related to the cost of long-term care by creating a database of 1,340 people from the data of approximately 10,000 people who have continued to live at home under the community-based integrated care system, including their condition profile and the services they use, and the involvement of family caregivers. Based on these results, we have developed the first predictive model of lifetime long-term care costs based on the correlation between long-term care costs and the user's basic attributes, care level (initial), changes in care level, and condition profile such as diseases. In addition, since most older adults requiring long-term care also receive nursing care and medical services, we analyzed long-term care and medical claims data for 1,389 residents of a municipality with seven years of actual long-term care benefits and developed a lifetime cost projection model that includes medical and health data.

Free Research Field

公衆衛生、社会福祉、統計学、社会保障政策

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

学術的には、在宅での介護費用の適切性の検討やエビデンスは国内外を通じて少ない中で本研究で開発した医療及び介護の生涯コストに関する推定モデルは重要な意義がある。
社会的には、社会全体への負荷を含めた財源、社会資源の再分配ルールの新たな設定が求められている状況下においては、本研究で開発された医療費及び健康データを含めた生涯コストの推計モデルは、在宅サービス提供における具体的な目安を示す意義がある。これは、わが国の社会保障改革に必要とされる介護及び医療サービス量の将来の推計を可能とすることを意味し、これまでにない卓越した成果といえる。