2011 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
A Research on Demand Forecasting and Supply Contract Support System Development for Innovative Product
| Project/Area Number |
21310095
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | Keio University |
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Principal Investigator |
MATSUKAWA Hiroaki (SOU tokuhitsu) 慶應義塾大学, 理工学部, 教授 (30242275)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KANAZAWA Takashi 慶應義塾大学, 理工学部, 教授 (60129393)
INADA Shuhei 慶應義塾大学, 理工学部, 専任講師 (60327715)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2011
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| Keywords | 需要予測 / DCNN / SCM / 供給契約 / SVM / ARIMA / DPM |
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| Research Abstract |
This research deals with two problems : One is demand forecasting and the other one is optimal supply contract utilizing the demand forecasting. In the demand forecasting, we constructed three layers cubic neural network in which middle layer consists of two groups contains six customer(agent) types in each, when those information, such as product specification and its evaluation by merchandizers, price discount information, historical sales data of similar product were selected to be input of the network, and output of the network feedback to middle layer so that to dynamically update parameters of sigmoid function. Utilizing demand forecast information, we further constructed option models that optimize initial ordering quantity and option quantities for retailer's profit, for manufacturer's profit, and for integrated supply chain profits. Furthermore, we found that wining price zone of the option contract model.
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