2010 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Analysis of Recovering Tourism Demand by Dynamic Psychology-Spatial Model : Theory and Practice

Research Project

Project/Area Number	21730223
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
Allocation Type	Single-year Grants
Research Field	Economic policy
Research Institution	財団法人運輸政策研究機構 (2010) Institution for Transport Policy Studies (2009)
Principal Investigator	OKUYAMA Tadahiro 財団法人運輸政策研究機構, 運輸政策研究所, 研究員 (20422587)
Project Period (FY)	2009 – 2010
Keywords	経済政策 / シミュレーション / 観光政策
Research Abstract	In this study, we analyzed an influence of a mortality risk for tourism behaviors. First, theoretical analyses on Kuhn Tucker Model (KTM) performed for demand and benefit estimations. Next, influences of utility functional forms for demands and benefits were investigated by estimating preference parameters. Thirdly, individuals' willingness to pay for the mortality risk from an earthquake / the tsunami. As results, median WTPs for risk reductions were calculated as {0, 600~700, 1,600~1,800} yen per a year for reduction rates {10%, 50%, 90%}, respectively. Finally, from data of tourism activity to eight sites of Nara, benefits of tourism activities calculated by using KTM were from 289 yen per year to 37,670 yen per year.