2011 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Predictability analysis of explosive cyclones using ensemble assimilation data and an atmospheric general circulation model
| Project/Area Number |
21740348
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology |
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Principal Investigator |
YOSHIDA Akira (YOSHIDA KUWANO Akira) 独立行政法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球シミュレータセンター, 研究員 (90392969)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2009 – 2011
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| Keywords | アンサンブル予報 / データ同化 / 予測可能性 / 爆弾低気圧 / THORPEX / 大気大循環モデル |
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| Research Abstract |
We analyzed predictability and its mechanism of explosive cyclones around Japan using an ensemble reanalysis data involving model and analysis error information. The explosive cyclones developed over the Sea of Japan tend to be predicted further northward than analysis, while those developed over the northwestern Pacific Ocean tend to be underestimated cyclone deepening with large analysis spread. The difference is due to major process of cyclone development influenced by large-scale environment.
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Research Products
(11 results)
