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2022 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

Co-evolution of epidemics, interventions, and behavior in network epidemiology

Research Project

Project/Area Number 21H04595
Research InstitutionKobe University

Principal Investigator

Holme Petter  神戸大学, 計算社会科学研究センター, リサーチフェロー (50802352)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 高安 美佐子  東京工業大学, 科学技術創成研究院, 教授 (20296776)
井深 陽子  慶應義塾大学, 経済学部(三田), 教授 (20612279)
増田 直紀  早稲田大学, 理工学術院, 教授(任期付) (40415295)
浅井 雄介  国立研究開発法人国立国際医療研究センター, 国際感染症センター, 研究員 (70779991)
Beauchemin Catherine  国立研究開発法人理化学研究所, 数理創造プログラム, 副プログラムディレクター (70898931)
村田 剛志  東京工業大学, 情報理工学院, 教授 (90242289)
上東 貴志  神戸大学, 計算社会科学研究センター, 教授 (30324908)
Project Period (FY) 2021-04-05 – 2025-03-31
KeywordsNetwork epidemiology / Network science / Theoretical epidemiology / Game theory / Behavioral modeling
Outline of Annual Research Achievements

During FY 2022, we published several papers on the core topics of this research program. For example, we published a paper about how to use previous observations of influenza for forecasting COVID-19 outbreaks and how to automate the extraction of epidemic-relevant information from doctors' reports by AI. Other works covered general models of spreading processes and how to balance breadth and depth in contact tracing if the goal is to find the source of an infection.

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

This project follows the outline of the original research program relatively closely. Some advances we made were beyond the scope we could originally predict, such as the use of language models for data extraction. Others are maybe slightly altered. We do, for example, not now intend to build models of behavioral feedback on temporal network models (since these assume data of human mobility that has a much higher resolution than available. Rather, we use somewhat more mainstream, aggregated models.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

Our research follow the general research trends. The results from the present project is pointing towards integration with models from artificial intelligence and more information-rich representations.

  • Research Products

    (45 results)

All 2023 2022 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (2 results) Journal Article (26 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 16 results,  Peer Reviewed: 25 results,  Open Access: 24 results) Presentation (16 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 6 results,  Invited: 7 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] Auburn University(米国)

    • Country Name
      U.S.A.
    • Counterpart Institution
      Auburn University
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Toronto Metropolitan University(カナダ)

    • Country Name
      CANADA
    • Counterpart Institution
      Toronto Metropolitan University
  • [Journal Article] Gender inequality and self-publication are common among academic editors2023

    • Author(s)
      Fengyuan Liu, Petter Holme, Matteo Chiesa, Bedoor AlShebli, Talal Rahwan
    • Journal Title

      Nature Human Behaviour

      Volume: 7 Pages: 353-364

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41562-022-01498-1

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Networks of climate change: Connecting causes and consequences2023

    • Author(s)
      Petter Holme, Juan C. Rocha
    • Journal Title

      Applied Network Science

      Volume: 8 Pages: 10

    • DOI

      10.1007/s41109-023-00536-9

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Dynamics of an SEIR model for infectious diseases in random environments.2023

    • Author(s)
      Asai Y, Cheng J, Han X.
    • Journal Title

      Mathematical Modelling: Theory and Application.

      Volume: 787 Pages: 27-54

    • DOI

      10.1090/conm/787/15791

    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Effects of population age structure on parenteral antimicrobial use estimations.2023

    • Author(s)
      Koizumi R, Kusama Y, Asai Y, Tsuzuki S, Aoyagi K, Ishikane M, Muraki Y, Ohmagari N.
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 16 Pages: 1-7

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-023-27769-z

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Regional trends in the use of steroids and favipiravir for COVID-19 treatment.2023

    • Author(s)
      Asai Y, Tsuzuki S, Matsunaga N, Ohmagari N.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Infection and Public Health

      Volume: 16 Pages: 623-629

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jiph.2022.12.014

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The effect of random virus failure following cell entry on infection outcome and the success of antiviral therapy2023

    • Author(s)
      Christian Quirouette, Daniel Cresta, Jizhou Li, Kathleen P. Wilkie, Haozhao Liang, Catherine A. A. Beauchemin
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports (NPG)

      Volume: 13 Pages: 1-32

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-023-44180-w

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Feature selection: Key to enhance node classification with graph neural networks2023

    • Author(s)
      Sunil Kumar Maurya, Xin Liu, Tsuyoshi Murata
    • Journal Title

      CAAI Transactions on Intelligent Technology

      Volume: 8 Pages: 14-28

    • DOI

      10.1049/cit2.12166

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Trading contact tracing efficiency for finding patient zero2022

    • Author(s)
      Marcin Waniek, Petter Holme, Katayoun Farrahi, Remi Emonet, Manuel Cebrian, Talal Rahwan
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 12 Pages: 22582

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-022-26892-7

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Epidemic surveillance of influenza infections: A network-free strategy2022

    • Author(s)
      Zhanwei Du, Qi Tan, Yuan Bai, Lin Wang, Benjamin J. Cowling, Petter Holme
    • Journal Title

      China CDC Weekly

      Volume: 4 Pages: 1025-1031

    • DOI

      10.46234/ccdcw2022.207

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Epidemiologic information discovery from open-access COVID-19 case reports via pretrained language model2022

    • Author(s)
      Zhizheng Wang, Xiao Fan Liu, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Ye Wu, Petter Holme, Michael Lachmann, Hongfei Lin, Zoie S. Y. Wong, Xiao-Ke Xu, Yuanyuan Sun
    • Journal Title

      iScience

      Volume: 25 Pages: 105079

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.isci.2022.105079

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Social diffusion sources can escape detection2022

    • Author(s)
      Marcin Waniek, Manuel Cebrian, Petter Holme, Talal Rahwan
    • Journal Title

      iScience

      Volume: 25 Pages: 104956

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.isci.2022.104956

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Vital Surveillances: Travel-related Importation and Exportation Risks of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant in 367 Prefectures (Cities)2022

    • Author(s)
      Yuan Bai, Mingda Xu, Caifen Liu, Mingwang Shen, Lin Wang, Linwei Tian, Suoyi Tan, Lei Zhang, Petter Holme, Xin Lu, Eric H. Y. Lau, Benjamin J. Cowling, Zhanwei Du
    • Journal Title

      China CDC Weekly

      Volume: 4 Pages: 885-889

    • DOI

      10.46234/ccdcw2022.184

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Hiding in temporal networks2022

    • Author(s)
      Marcin Waniek, Petter Holme, Talal Rahwan
    • Journal Title

      IEEE Trans. Netw. Sci. Eng.

      Volume: 9 Pages: 1645-1657

    • DOI

      10.1109/TNSE.2022.3148752

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Weighted network motifs as random walk patterns2022

    • Author(s)
      Franco Ruzzenenti, Francesco Picciolo, Petter Holme, Rossana Mastrandrea
    • Journal Title

      New. J. Phys

      Volume: 24 Pages: 53056

    • DOI

      10.1088/1367-2630/ac6f75

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Optimizing COVID-19 surveillance using historical electronic health records of influenza infections2022

    • Author(s)
      Zhanwei Du, Yuan Bai, Lin Wang, Jose L Herrera-Diestra, Zhilu Yuan, Renzhong Guo, Benjamin J Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Petter Holme
    • Journal Title

      PNAS Nexus

      Volume: 1 Pages: pgac038

    • DOI

      10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac038

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Optimal control of networked reaction?diffusion systems2022

    • Author(s)
      Shupeng Gao, Lili Chang, Ivan Romi?, Zhen Wang, Marko Jusup, Petter Holme
    • Journal Title

      J. Roy. Soc. Interface

      Volume: 18 Pages: 20210739

    • DOI

      10.1098/rsif.2021.0739

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] The microdynamics shaping the relation between democracy and corruption2022

    • Author(s)
      Boris Podobnik, Marko Jusup, Dean Koro?ak, Petter Holme and Tomislav Lipi?
    • Journal Title

      Proc. R. Soc. A

      Volume: 478 Pages: 20210567

    • DOI

      10.1098/rspa.2021.0567

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] "Direct modelling from GPS data reveals daily-activity-dependency of effective reproduction number in COVID-19 pandemic"2022

    • Author(s)
      Jun'ichi Ozaki, Yohei Shida, Hideki Takayasu & Misako Takayasu
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 12 Pages: 17888-17900

    • DOI

      10.1038/s41598-022-22420-9

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] "Mixing age and risk groups for accessing COVID-19 vaccines: A modeling study."2022

    • Author(s)
      Hongming Wang, Yoko Ibuka, Ryota Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      BMJ Open

      Volume: 12 Pages: 1-10

    • DOI

      10.1136/bmjopen-2022-061139.

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] "Social contact patterns in Japan in the COVID-19 pandemic during and after the Tokyo Olympic Games."2022

    • Author(s)
      Shinya Tsuzuki, Yusuke Asai, Yoko Ibuka, Tomoki Nakaya, Norio Ohmagari, Niel Hens, Philippe Beutels
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Global Health

      Volume: 12 Pages: 1-8

    • DOI

      10.7189/jogh.12.05047.

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Impact of regional heterogeneity on the severity of COVID-192022

    • Author(s)
      Tsuzuki S, Asai Y, Matsunaga N, Ishioka H, Akiyama T, Ohmagari N.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Infection and Chemotherapy

      Volume: 28 Pages: 554-557

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jiac.2021.12.032

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Considerations and concerns regarding the readiness to remove face coverings.2022

    • Author(s)
      Terada M, Tsuzuki S, Asai Y, Saito S, Ohmagari N.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Global Health

      Volume: 12 Pages: 1-3

    • DOI

      10.7189/jogh.12.03036

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on racial and ethnic minorities in Japan.2022

    • Author(s)
      Nomoto H, Asai Y, Hayakawa K, Matsunaga N, Kutsuna S, Kodama EN, Ohmagari N.
    • Journal Title

      Epidemiology and Infection

      Volume: 26 Pages: 1-9

    • DOI

      10.1017/S0950268822001674

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Social contact patterns in Japan in the COVID-19 pandemic during and after the Tokyo Olympic Games.2022

    • Author(s)
      Tsuzuki S, Asai Y, Ibuka Y, Nakaya T, Ohmabari N, Hens H, Beutels P.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Global Health

      Volume: 28 Pages: 1-8

    • DOI

      10.7189/jogh.12.05047

    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Stochastic failure of cell infection post viral entry: Implications for infection outcomes and antiviral therapy2022

    • Author(s)
      Christian Quirouette, Daniel Cresta, Jizhou Li, Kathleen P. Wilkie, Haozhao Liang, Catherine A. A. Beauchemin
    • Journal Title

      arXiv (pre-print) [below is peer-reviewed version]

      Volume: 22 Pages: 1-35

    • DOI

      10.48550/arXiv.2208.00637

    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Existence of an Optimal Path in a Continuous-time Nonconcave Ramsey Model2022

    • Author(s)
      Ken-Ichi Akao, Hitoshi Ishii, Takashi Kamihigashi, Kazuo Nishimura
    • Journal Title

      Pure and Applied Functional Analysis

      Volume: 7(6) Pages: 1939-1952

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] GPSデータを用いたCOVID-19の近接感染モデルIV2023

    • Author(s)
      尾崎順一, 志田洋平, 高安秀樹, 高安美佐子
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会 2023年春季大会, オンライン開催
  • [Presentation] Modeling and analysis of temporal networks and dynamical processes on them2023

    • Author(s)
      Naoki Masuda
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Emerging Trends in Mathematical Sciences & Computing (IEMSC-23)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Effective reproduction number dependent on daily activity in COVID-19 pandemic with vaccination effect2022

    • Author(s)
      Jun'Ichi Ozaki, Yohei Shida, Hideki Takayasu and Misako Takayasu
    • Organizer
      Conference on Complex Systems 2022, Auditorium of Palma de Mallorca Convention Center (Spain)
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] GPSデータを用いたCOVID-19の近接感染モデルIII2022

    • Author(s)
      尾﨑順一, 志田洋平, 高安秀樹, 高安美佐子
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会 2022年秋季大会, 東京工業大学(大岡山キャンパス)
  • [Presentation] 拡張SEIRモデルによるCovid-19新規感染者数の再現2022

    • Author(s)
      山田健太, 高安秀樹, 高安美佐子
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会 2022年秋季大会, 東京工業大学(大岡山キャンパス)
  • [Presentation] Recurrence quantification analysis and energy landscape analysis of dynamic brain networks2022

    • Author(s)
      Naoki Masuda
    • Organizer
      The BIRS workshop on Multiplex Brain Networks
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Recurrence view of temporal network data: System-state dynamics, recurrence plot, and embedding2022

    • Author(s)
      Naoki Masuda
    • Organizer
      NetSci 2022
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] State dynamics view of temporal network data: Recurrence and embedding2022

    • Author(s)
      Naoki Masuda
    • Organizer
      Blockchain Kaigi 2022 (BCK22)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Long-tailed distributions of inter-event times as mixtures of exponentials2022

    • Author(s)
      Naoki Masuda
    • Organizer
      KIAS International Workshop: Theoretical Challenges in Network Science
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Identifying targets for testing by machine learning2022

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Asai
    • Organizer
      ECCMID
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Dynamics of an SEIR model with random perturbation2022

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Asai
    • Organizer
      ECMTB
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Regional trends in favipiravir and steroid use in the treatment of COVID-192022

    • Author(s)
      Yusuke Asai
    • Organizer
      IDWEEK
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Physics reasoning applied to health research2022

    • Author(s)
      Catherine A. A. Beauchemin
    • Organizer
      Interdisciplinary Science Conference in Okinawa (ISCO 2023)
  • [Presentation] Parameter estimation in health research: the devil is in the experimental details2022

    • Author(s)
      Catherine A. A. Beauchemin
    • Organizer
      Theoretical Joint Research (TJR) workshop
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Not All Neighbors are Friendly: Learning to Choose Hop Features to Improve Node Classification2022

    • Author(s)
      Sunil Kumar Maurya, Xin Liu, Tsuyoshi Murata
    • Organizer
      the 31st ACM International Conference on Information & Knowledge Management (CIKM '22)
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 中原賞受賞講演2022

    • Author(s)
      上東貴志
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2022年度秋季大会
    • Invited
  • [Book] グラフニューラルネットワーク2022

    • Author(s)
      村田剛志
    • Total Pages
      236
    • Publisher
      オーム社
    • ISBN
      978-4-274-22887-2

URL: 

Published: 2024-12-25  

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