Recruitment suitability for Japanese tree species: a future prediction with seed dispersal, survival and germination traits

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K05687
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 40010:Forest science-related
• Research Institution: Kyushu University
• Principal Investigator: Kusumoto Buntaro 九州大学, 農学研究院, 助教 (90748104)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 生物多様性 / 種分布モデル / 将来予測 / 気候 / 生理特性 / 森林動態

Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this project, I examined several approaches to predicting changes in distribution of tree species due to climate change and concluded that because physiological and reproductive data are scarce compared to species occurrence records, an inverse model that estimates these parameters using geographic distribution data was an effective way. In addition, to obtain demographic parameters for each tree species, we clarified species-level growth rates, mortality rates, new recruitment rates, and sprouting rates from forest monitoring data in the northern part of Okinawa Island. Furthermore, we analyzed macro-scale distribution data and seed functional characteristics to clarify the influence of climate filters.

Free Research Field

保全生態学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

気候変動に対する生物多様性の変化を予測することは、将来的な保全・再生のプランニングにおいて重要である。また、多種系を扱う上で、予測手法の主流となっている相関ベースのアプローチと、生理・生態メカニズムを組み込んだ機構論的アプローチの併用は、観測データの充実化とモデルの改良の両方の側面で重要である。