Preparing for future pandemic of respiratory viruses based on epidemiological analysis of COVID-19

2023 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 21K19624
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Medium-sized Section 58:Society medicine, nursing, and related fields
• Research Institution: Tohoku University
• Principal Investigator: Oshitani Hitoshi 東北大学, 医学系研究科, 教授 (80419994)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-07-09 – 2024-03-31
• Keywords: 新型コロナウイルス感染症 / COVID-19 / 公衆衛生対策 / 2次感染の異質性

Outline of Final Research Achievements

One of the significant epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 is the overdispersion of secondary transmission. SARS-CoV-2 has been evolving rapidly , resulting in many variants and subvariants. These variants and subvariants have different epidemiological characteristics. It was not known if the overdispersion was maintained with the Omicron variant. Therefore, we analyzed the epidemiological data of Yamagata Prefecture of Japan, including the pattern of secondary cases until the early stage of the Omicron wave. We confirmed that the overdispersion was maintained until the Omicron wave.
No vaccines were available during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, and control measures mainly depended on Public Health and Social Measures (PHSMs), previously known as non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, the scientific evidence for PHSMs was limited. We reviewed the literature on PHSMs in Japan and other countries and evaluated their effectiveness in controlling COVID-19.

Free Research Field

ウイルス学

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

COVID-19は世界的に莫大な被害をもたらしてきている。一方でその疫学的特徴や公衆衛生対策の有効性についてはまだ十分に解明されていない点が残されている。本研究ではそれらの点についての解析を進め、その結果はWHOのガイドライン作成などに生かされた。今後もパンデミックは起きることが予測されておりそれに対応するためには、日本を含む先進国ではワクチン開発に多くの予算が割かれてきている。しかし、パンデミックの初期対応は公衆衛生対応に依存せざるを得ず、迅速に疫学的特徴を明らかにし有効な公衆衛生対応を実施することが求められる。本研究で明らかになった内容は将来のパンデミック対策にも貢献しうるものである。