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2012 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

エネルギー論的観点からの大気循環変動の再考察:新しい変動論の確立へ向けて

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22340135
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

中村 尚  東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 教授 (10251406)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 渡部 雅浩  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 准教授 (70344497)
三瓶 岳昭  会津大学, 先端情報科学研究センター, 准教授 (50571775)
谷本 陽一  北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究科(研究院), 教授 (00291568)
高薮 縁  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (10197212)
Project Period (FY) 2010-04-01 – 2013-03-31
Keywords気候変動 / 気象学 / 大気現象 / 力学モード / エネルギー変換 / ジェット気流 / 大気海洋相互作用 / テレコネクション
Research Abstract

我が国の天候変動にも関係する持続的な大気循環変動に関する3つの「学界の常識」を,全球大気再解析データなど新しい解析・診断手法に基づき再検証を試みた.
1) 中高緯度で寒候期に観測される持続的循環偏差のエネルギー収支解析を,冬季東アジアモンスーンの変動に寄与する循環偏差「西太平洋パターン」にも適用し,従来からその重要性が指摘されている3次元平均流からの運動エネルギー変換のみならず,傾圧的な偏西風からの有効位置エネルギー(APE)変換もそれ以上に重要であることが分かった.特に,ジェット気流に伴う南北気温勾配のみならず,海陸熱コントラストに伴う東西気温勾配もがAPE変換に重要なことも見出された.
2) 包括的な研究の為されてこなかった秋雨前線帯についても,梅雨前線帯と同様に,その形成に亜熱帯ジェット気流に伴う暖気移流による大規模上昇流が重要であることを見出した.ただし,梅雨期とは異なり,秋雨期には大陸上で亜熱帯ジェット気流は北風成分を持って寒気移流をもたらすことを反映し,秋雨前線は大陸上には形成され難く,秋雨が日本周辺とその東海上のみに起こる雨期であることを確認した.さらに,ジェット気流に伴う暖気移流の変動が秋雨前線に伴う降雨の変動に連動する傾向も見出した.
3) 中緯度北太平洋海面水温偏差に対する停滞性ロスビー波応答が,夏季から秋季にかけての偏西風ジェット気流の緯度の変化に敏感であることが示された.秋季に偏西風が中緯度に位置し,中緯度の海上偏西風が強まると,暖水偏差から大気への熱供給増加に伴って,現実的なロスビー波応答が大気大循環モデルにおいて現実的に再現されるようになることが確認された.

Current Status of Research Progress
Reason

24年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

24年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

  • Research Products

    (65 results)

All 2013 2012 Other

All Journal Article (20 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 17 results) Presentation (43 results) (of which Invited: 14 results) Book (1 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] The Aqua Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation2013

    • Author(s)
      M. Blackburn
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

      Volume: 90 Pages: 未定

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The Aqua Planet Experiment (APE): Response to changed meridional SST profile2013

    • Author(s)
      M. Blackburn
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

      Volume: 90 Pages: 未定

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Potential influence of a midlatitude oceanic frontal zone on the annular variability in the extratropical atmosphere as revealed by aqua-planet experiments2013

    • Author(s)
      T. Sampe
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

      Volume: 90 Pages: 未定

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Relationship of the Reproducibility of Multiple Variables among Global Climate2013

    • Author(s)
      K. Nishii
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

      Volume: 90A Pages: 87-100

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Event attribution of the August 2010 Russian heat wave2013

    • Author(s)
      M. Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 9 Pages: 64-67

    • DOI

      10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044015

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 環状モード変動における中緯度海洋前線帯の潜在的重要性―水惑星実験から―2013

    • Author(s)
      小川史明
    • Journal Title

      京都大学防災研究所研究集会(24K-08)「異常気象と長期変動」

      Volume: 9 Pages: 122-126

  • [Journal Article] Future oceans under pressure2012

    • Author(s)
      H. Nakamura
    • Journal Title

      Nature Geoscience

      Volume: Vol.5 Pages: 768-769

    • URL

      http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/ v5/n11/full/ngeo1623.html

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A striking early-summer event of a convective rainband persistent along the warm Kuroshio in the East China Sea2012

    • Author(s)
      T. Miyama
    • Journal Title

      Tellus A

      Volume: 64 Pages: 18962

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Measurements of regional-scale aerosol impacts on cloud microphysics over the East China Sea: Possible influences of warm sea surface temperature over the Kuroshio ocean current2012

    • Author(s)
      M. Koike
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Geophysical Research

      Volume: 117 (17) Pages: D17205

    • DOI

      0.1029/2011JD017324

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Potential predictability of interannual variability in the Kuroshio Extension jet speed in an eddy-resolving OGCM2012

    • Author(s)
      M. Nonaka
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 25 (10) Pages: 3645-3652

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The 2009/2010 Arctic stratospheric winter - General evolution, mountain waves and predictability of an operational weather forecast model2012

    • Author(s)
      A. Dornbrack
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

      Volume: 12 Pages: 3659-3675

    • DOI

      0.5194/acp-12-3659-2012

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] What causes cool summer over northern central and east Asia and central 2009?2012

    • Author(s)
      Ha, K.-J
    • Journal Title

      Env. Res. Lett.

      Volume: 7

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Uncertainty in the ENSO amplitude change from the past to future2012

    • Author(s)
      M. Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett.

      Volume: 39

    • DOI

      10.1029/2012GL053305

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Intraseasonal SST-precipitation relationship and its spatial variability2012

    • Author(s)
      M. Roxy
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 未定 Pages: 未定

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-012-1547-1

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 中緯度西岸域における大気海洋相互作用2012

    • Author(s)
      谷本陽一
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 59 Pages: 762-768

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Relationships between rain characteristics and environment. Part I: TRMM precipitation features and the large-scale environment over the tropical Pacific2012

    • Author(s)
      C. Yokoyama
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 140 Pages: 2831-2840

    • DOI

      10.1175/MWR-D-11-00252.1

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Relationships between rain characteristics and environment. Part II: Atmospheric disturbances associated with shallow convection over the eastern tropical Pacific2012

    • Author(s)
      C. Yokoyama
    • Journal Title

      Monthly Weather Review

      Volume: 140 Pages: 2841-2859

    • DOI

      10.1175/MWR-D-11-00251.1

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Inter-model differences of future precipitation changes in CMIP3 and MIROC5 climate models2012

    • Author(s)
      N. Hirota
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan

      Volume: 90A Pages: 307-316

    • DOI

      10.2151/jmsj.2012-A16

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 2010年夏季ユーラシア域の異常気象の連関と偏西風の異常蛇行2012

    • Author(s)
      宮坂貴文
    • Journal Title

      気象研究ノート「2010年猛暑」

      Volume: 225 Pages: 37-44

  • [Journal Article] インド北部ラダークの洪水2012

    • Author(s)
      谷田貝亜紀代
    • Journal Title

      気象研究ノート「2010年猛暑」

      Volume: 225 Pages: 45-53

  • [Presentation] Multi-scale impacts of the midlatitude ocean on the atmosphere: Roles of the western boundary currents and associated frontal zones as revealed in the “Hotspot Project”2013

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS OF FRONTAL SCALE AIR-SEA INTERACTION
    • Place of Presentation
      ボルダー(アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      20130805-20130807
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Potential importance of midlatitude oceanic frontal latitude on the atmospheric annular mode variability as revealed from aqua-planet experiments2013

    • Author(s)
      Ogawa, F.
    • Organizer
      CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS OF FRONTAL SCALE AIR-SEA INTERACTION
    • Place of Presentation
      ボルダー(アメリカ)
    • Year and Date
      20130805-20130807
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Geographical dependence observed in blocking high influence on the stratospheric variability through enhancement and suppression of upward planetary-wave propagation2012

    • Author(s)
      Nishii, K.
    • Organizer
      ICDM Workshop 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      昆明(中国)
    • Year and Date
      20120808-20120809
  • [Presentation] Long-term modulations in the decadal climate variability over the North Pacific2012

    • Author(s)
      Miyasaka, T.
    • Organizer
      ICDM Workshop 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      昆明(中国)
    • Year and Date
      20120808-20120809
  • [Presentation] Atmospheric Response to Prominent Warm SST Anomalies in the Midlatitude North Pacific during Summer/Autumn 20112012

    • Author(s)
      Okajima, S.
    • Organizer
      ICDM Workshop 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      昆明(中国)
    • Year and Date
      20120808-20120809
  • [Presentation] A numerical study of the climatological dependence of storm tracks and westerly jets on the latitude of a SST front2012

    • Author(s)
      Ogawa, F.
    • Organizer
      ICDM Workshop 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      昆明(中国)
    • Year and Date
      20120806-20120807
  • [Presentation] Stratospheric cooling and downward planetary-wave propagation in the lowermost stratosphere during the 2010-11 winter

    • Author(s)
      Nishii K.
    • Organizer
      EGU 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      ウィーン(オーストリア)
  • [Presentation] Geographical dependence observed in blocking high influence on the stratospheric variability through enhancement and suppression of upward planetary-wave propagation

    • Author(s)
      Nishii K.
    • Organizer
      EGU 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      ウィーン(オーストリア)
  • [Presentation] 2010-2011冬季における寒冷な極域成層圏と惑星波の下向き伝播

    • Author(s)
      西井和晃
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉)
  • [Presentation] Interannual variability of low-level stratiform clouds over the western North Pacific and associated air-sea interaction

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉)
  • [Presentation] Influence of SST front on baroclinic development of atmospheric low-frequency variability

    • Author(s)
      Nishii K.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉)
  • [Presentation] Long-term modulations in the decadal climate variability over the North Pacific

    • Author(s)
      Miyasaka T.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉)
  • [Presentation] A numerical study of the climatological dependence of westerly jets and storm

    • Author(s)
      Ogawa F.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉)
  • [Presentation] Possible Atmospheric Response to Prominent Warm SST Anomalies in the Midlatitude North Pacific during Summer/Autumn 2011

    • Author(s)
      Okajima S.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉)
  • [Presentation] Interannual variations of a local pressure minimum and baroclinicity around the Kuroshio Extension in the cold season

    • Author(s)
      Masunaga R.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉)
  • [Presentation] 異常気象と気候変動の科学,スペシャルレクチャー

    • Author(s)
      中村 尚
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 黒潮続流上における大気下層の調節過程

    • Author(s)
      谷本陽一
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      エポカルつくば(茨城)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 対流圏から成層圏へ伝播する惑星波の増幅について

    • Author(s)
      西井和晃
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      エポカルつくば(茨城)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Long-term modulations in North-Pacific decadal climate variability as revealed in observations and a coupled model simulation

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      AMS 18th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction
    • Place of Presentation
      ボストン(アメリカ)
  • [Presentation] Sea level pressure minimum and ageostrophic surface winds over the Kuroshio and its extension

    • Author(s)
      Tanimoto, Y.
    • Organizer
      AMS 18th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction
    • Place of Presentation
      ボストン(アメリカ)
  • [Presentation] Evaluating and understanding climate feedback and sensitivity in different types of model ensembles

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      2012 LASG summer symposium
    • Place of Presentation
      西寧(中国)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Cold-air outbreaks over East Asia associated with blocking highs: Mechanisms and their influence on the polar stratosphere

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      ICDM Workshop 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      昆明(中国)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Interannual variations of a local pressure minimum and baroclinicity around the Kuroshio Extension in the cold season

    • Author(s)
      Masunaga, R.
    • Organizer
      ICDM Workshop 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      昆明(中国)
  • [Presentation] Air-sea interactions associated with midlatitude ocean fronts: multi-scale of the ocean on the atmosphere

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      AOGS-AGU (WPGM) joint assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      シンガポール(シンガポール)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Processes controlling equilibrium climate sensitivity in model ensembles

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      AOGS-AGU (WPGM) joint assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      シンガポール(シンガポール)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Changing ENSO amplitudes in the past and present

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      AOGS-AGU (WPGM) joint assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      シンガポール(シンガポール)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋十年規模気候変動の長期変調

    • Author(s)
      宮坂貴文
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(北海道)
  • [Presentation] 環状モード変動における中緯度海洋前線帯の潜在的重要性-水惑星実験から-

    • Author(s)
      小川史明
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学(北海道)
  • [Presentation] Air-sea interactions associated with the Agulhas system: Regional, basin-scale and hemispheric impacts

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      AGU Chapman Conference on "The Agulhas System and its Role in Changing Ocean Circulation, Climate, and Marine Ecosystems"
    • Place of Presentation
      ステレンブーシュ(南アフリカ)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 梅雨・秋雨の対比とそのモデル再現性・将来変化

    • Author(s)
      西井和晃
    • Organizer
      京都大学防災研究所研究集会「週間及び1か月予報における顕著現象の予測可能性」
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学(京都)
  • [Presentation] 北太平洋十年規模気候変動の長期変調

    • Author(s)
      宮坂貴文
    • Organizer
      京都大学防災研究所研究集会「週間及び1か月予報における顕著現象の予測可能性」
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学(京都)
  • [Presentation] 2007年1月福島県中通りで観測された強風に関する数値実験

    • Author(s)
      三瓶岳昭
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会東北支部気象研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      仙台管区気象台(宮城県)
  • [Presentation] Projected changes in Arctic summer storm-track activity by CMIP3 climate models

    • Author(s)
      Nishii, K.
    • Organizer
      ISAR-3
    • Place of Presentation
      日本科学未来館(東京)
  • [Presentation] Potential influence of the future warming of the East China Sea on the occurrence of heavy rainfall events over western Japan in the Baiu/Meiyu season: An assessment through regional model experiments

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      CMIP5国際ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      エポカルつくば(茨城)
  • [Presentation] Large-Scale East-Asian Rainbands in Early Summer and Autumn Simulated in CMIP5 Models

    • Author(s)
      Nishii K.
    • Organizer
      CMIP5国際ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      エポカルつくば(茨城)
  • [Presentation] Natural climate variability and related uncertainties in projected climate change: A case of the PJ pattern

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      2013 KIAPS International Forum
    • Place of Presentation
      ソウル(韓国)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Multi-scale impacts of the extratropical ocean on the atmosphere: Roles of the western boundary currents and associated frontal zones

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      韓国気象学会50周年記念大会
    • Place of Presentation
      ソウル(韓国)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The Western Pacific teleconnection pattern: Its structure, dynamics and influence on the East Asian winter monsoon

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      AOGS 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      ブリスベン(オーストラリア)
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Long-term modulations in the decadal climate variability over the North Pacific

    • Author(s)
      Miyasaka, T.
    • Organizer
      AOGS 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      ブリスベン(オーストラリア)
  • [Presentation] Long-term modulations in the decadal climate variability over the North Pacific: Observations and a coupled model simulation

    • Author(s)
      Nakamura, H.
    • Organizer
      DACA-13
    • Place of Presentation
      ダボス(スイス)
  • [Presentation] Potential importance of midlatitude oceanic frontal latitude on the atmospheric annular mode variability as revealed from aqua-planet experiments

    • Author(s)
      Ogawa, F.
    • Organizer
      DACA-13
    • Place of Presentation
      ダボス(スイス)
  • [Presentation] Possible influence of prominent SST anomalies in October 2011 over the midlatitude North Pacific on the atmospheric circulation

    • Author(s)
      Okajima, S.
    • Organizer
      DACA-13
    • Place of Presentation
      ダボス(スイス)
  • [Presentation] Interannual variations of a local pressure minimum and baroclinic zone around the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension under the winter monsoon

    • Author(s)
      Masunaga, R.
    • Organizer
      DACA-13
    • Place of Presentation
      ダボス(スイス)
  • [Book] 気象研究ノート「2010年猛暑」2012

    • Author(s)
      宮坂貴文
    • Total Pages
      190
    • Publisher
      日本気象学会
  • [Remarks] 東京大学 先端科学技術研究センター 気候変動科学分野 中村尚研究室

    • URL

      http://www.atmos.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/nakamura_lab/

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Published: 2014-07-24  

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