2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
One-shot decision theory and its applications to business problems
| Project/Area Number |
22510144
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | Yokohama National University |
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Principal Investigator |
GUO PEIJUN 横浜国立大学, 国際社会科学研究院, 教授 (60325313)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010-04-01 – 2014-03-31
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| Keywords | ワン・ショット意思決定理論 / フォーカス・ポイント / 多段階ワン・ショット意思理論 / 新聞売り子問題 / 最適停止問題 / 多段階投資・消費問題 |
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| Research Abstract |
The one-shot decision theory is initially proposed for dealing with one-shot decision problems which are typical for situations where a decision maker has one and only one chance to make a decision with partially known information. The one-shot decision theory is a fundamental alternative for decision making under uncertainty because it is scenario-based instead of lottery-based as in the other existing methods. As an application, a duopoly market of a new product with a short life cycle, a private real estate investment problem and a single-period inventory problem are analyzed. A general approach to multistage one-shot decision making is proposed with the one-shot decision theory. The optimality equation in multistage one-shot decision problems is given. We examine the optimal stopping problem in the possibilistic time-invariant system and an individual multi-period consumption-investment problem.
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