2011 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Statistical estimation of regional scale climate changes in frequencies of intense precipitation events
| Project/Area Number |
22740318
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
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| Research Institution | University of Tsukuba (2011)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (2010) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2010 – 2011
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| Keywords | 気候変動 / 領域気候 / 統計手法 / 降水 |
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| Research Abstract |
In this study, I developed a new probabilistic distribution function for short term precipitation amounts. The function was constructed basing on the difference of characteristic features between the weak and strong precipitations. The weak and strong precipitations were approximated by the exponential and Weibull probabilistic distribution functions, respectively. The function has mainly three parameters. A regression based statistical model was developed using objective analysis data as predictors and the three parameters as predictands. The objective analysis data was modified to be independent by the principal component analysis. A test experiment with the statistical model showed better result in the estimation of climate changes in intense precipitation frequencies. However, some problems in details of the techniques remain.
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