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2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

Strategic research of effective prediction to increase the probability gain statistical space-time model for diagnosing abnormal seismic activity

Research Project

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Project/Area Number 23240039
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

OGATA Yosihiko  統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 名誉教授 (70000213)

Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) ZHUANG Jiancang  情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 准教授 (70465920)
KATO Shogo  情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 助教 (60468535)
MATSU'URA Mitsuhiro  情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 特任教授/外来研究員 (00114645)
SUGAYA Katsunori  情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所 (40598661)
TODA Shinji  京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (80313047)
TSURUOKA Hirosi  東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (10280562)
IWATA Takaki  早稲田大学, 国際教養学術院, 助教/情報 (30418991)
Project Period (FY) 2011-04-01 – 2014-03-31
Keywords点過程モデリング / 時空間ETASモデル / 時空間BPTモデル / 前震の確率予測 / 余震の直後確率予測 / 非定常ETASモデル / 群発地震 / 繰り返し地震
Research Abstract

(1) We have completed beta version of the software of Bayesian models, such as hierarchical space-time ETAS models, which can be adapted to regional characteristics of seismic activity. Some programs have been provided for prediction experiment in California (UCERF3). (2) Research for real-time prediction of the probability of aftershocks within one day after the mainshock has been successful. (3) We have empirically demonstrated that predicting the probability of a major earthquake based on statistical discrimination of foreshocks. (4) We have developed a non-stationary BPT model for analyzing repeating earthquakes to visualize the space-time variation of stress changes on the plate boundary beneath the seafloor. (5) We have developed a non-stationary ETAS model to capture the pore fluid pressure changes on the faults from the earthquake swarm data.

  • Research Products

    (87 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011 Other

All Journal Article (46 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 46 results) Presentation (35 results) (of which Invited: 35 results) Remarks (5 results) Patent(Industrial Property Rights) (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Estimating the ETAS model from an early aftershock sequence2014

    • Author(s)
      Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K.
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letter

    • DOI

      10.1002/2013GL058958

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Physics-based 3-D simulation of earthquake generation cycles at plate interfaces in subduction zones2014

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, C., E. Fukuyama, and M. Matsu'ura
    • Journal Title

      Pure Appl. Geophys

      Pages: 1-24

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Quasi-static strain and stress fields due to a moment tensor in elastic-viscoelastic layered half-space2014

    • Author(s)
      Hashima, A., Y. Fukahata, C. Hashimoto, and M. Matsu'ura
    • Journal Title

      Pure Appl. Geophys

      Volume: Vol. 171 Pages: 1-25

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A prospect of earthquake prediction research2013

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Statistical Science

      Volume: 28 Pages: 521-541

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Forecasting large aftershocks within one day after the main shock2013

    • Author(s)
      Omi, T., Ogata, Y., Hirata, Y. and Aihara, K.
    • Journal Title

      Scientific Reports

      Volume: 3

    • DOI

      10.1038/srep02218

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Comprehensive and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in terms of number, time, space, and magnitude2013

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K.Z. and Zhuang, J
    • Journal Title

      Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.

      Volume: 103 Pages: 1692-1708

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A non-stationary epidemic type aftershock sequence model for seismicity prior to the December 26, 2004 M9.1 Sumatra-Andaman Islands mega-earthquake2013

    • Author(s)
      Bansal, A.R. and Ogata, Y
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 118 Pages: 616-629

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Stability of earthquake clustering models : Criticality and branching ratios2013

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang J., Werner, M. J. and Harte D. S
    • Journal Title

      Phys. Rev. E

      Volume: 88 Pages: 1-13

    • DOI

      10.1103/PhysRevE.88.062109

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations : with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region2013

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan, H
    • Journal Title

      In Imaging, Modeling and Assimilation in Seismology - Volume II, edited by Li Y., Germany : De Gruyte

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Interevent times in a new alarm-based earthquake forecasting model2013

    • Author(s)
      Talbi, A., Nanjo, K., Zhuang, J., Satake, K. and Hamdache, M
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int

      Volume: 194 Pages: 1823-1835

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Comparison of seismicity declustering methods using a probabilistic measure of clustering2013

    • Author(s)
      Talbi, A., Nanjo, K., Satake, K., Zhuang, J. and Hamdache M
    • Journal Title

      J. Seismology

      Pages: 17

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Assessing the potential improvement in short-term earthquake forecasts from incorporation of GPS data2013

    • Author(s)
      Wang, T., Zhuang, J, Kato, T. and Bebbington, M.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett.

      Volume: 40 Pages: 2631-2635

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Cumulative rate analysis(CURATE) : a clustering algorithm for swarm dominated catalogs2013

    • Author(s)
      Jacobs, K.M., Smith, E.G.C., Savage, M.K. and Zhuang, J.
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 118 Pages: 553-569

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of completeness magnitude considering daily variation in earthquake detection capability2013

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int

      Volume: 194 Pages: 1909-1919

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 固体地球科学における大量データとその解析-日本における近年の展開とその展望-2013

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Journal Title

      システム/制御/情報

      Volume: 57 Pages: 172-177

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Daily variation in earthquake detection capability : a quantitative evaluation, in Earthquake Research and Analysis: NewAdvances in Seismology (ed. D'Amico. S.)2013

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T.
    • Journal Title

      InTech, Rijeka, Croatia

      Pages: 167-184

    • DOI

      10.5772/54890

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake by non-stationary ETAS models2013

    • Author(s)
      Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y.
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: 118 Pages: 6165-6182

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Interseismic GPS strain data inversion to estimate slip-deficit rates at plate interfaces : Application to the Kanto region, central Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Noda, A., C. Hashimoto, Y. Fukahata, and M. Matsu'ura
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int

      Volume: 193 Pages: 61-77

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Changes in seismic activity following the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake : Effects of pore fluid pressure2013

    • Author(s)
      Terakawa, T., C. Hashimoto, and M. Matsu'ura
    • Journal Title

      Earth Planet. Sci. Lett

      Volume: 365 Pages: 17-24

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 内陸地震の長期評価に関する課題と新たな視点2013

    • Author(s)
      遠田晋次
    • Journal Title

      地質学雑誌

      Volume: 119 Pages: 105-123

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Interseismic GPS strain data inversion to estimate slip-deficit rates at plate interfaces : application to the Kanto region, central Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Noda, A., Hashimoto, C., Fukahata, Y. and Matsu'ura, M.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int

      Volume: 193 Pages: 61-77

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Prospective foreshock forecast experiment during the last 17 years2012

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y. and Katsura, K.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int.

      Volume: 191 Pages: 1237-1244

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Basic models of seismicity : temporal models2012

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J., Harte, D, Werner, M.J., Hainzl, S. and Zhou, S
    • Journal Title

      Community Online Resource for Statistical SeismicityAnalysis

    • DOI

      10.5078/corssa-79905851

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering2012

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J
    • Journal Title

      Research in Geophysics

      Volume: 2

    • DOI

      10.4081/rg.2012.e8

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An approach to detect the abnormal seismicity increase in Southwestern China triggered co-seismically by 2004 Sumatra Mw 9.2 earthquake2012

    • Author(s)
      Peng, Y., Zhou S., Zhuang J. and Shi, J.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int

      Volume: 189 Pages: 1734-1740

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Seismicity declustering2012

    • Author(s)
      van Stiphout, T., Zhuang, J. and Marsan, D.
    • Journal Title

      Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis

    • DOI

      10.5078/corssa-52382934

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 2011年4月11日に発生した福島県浜通りの地震の地震断層と活動履歴2012

    • Author(s)
      遠田晋次, 堤浩之
    • Journal Title

      地質学雑誌

      Volume: 118 Pages: 559-570

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Aftershocks halted by static stress shadows2012

    • Author(s)
      Toda, S., Stein, R.S., Beroza, G.C. and Marsan D.
    • Journal Title

      Nature Geoscience

      Volume: 5 Pages: 410-413

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Earthquake triggering caused by the external oscillation of stress/strain changes2012

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T.
    • Journal Title

      CORSSA

    • DOI

      10.5078/corssa-65828518

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 東北沖超巨大地震とプレート沈み込み帯のマルチ地震サイクル2012

    • Author(s)
      松浦充宏
    • Journal Title

      地質学雑誌

      Volume: 118 Pages: 313-322

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Predictability study on the aftershock sequence following the 2011Tohoku-Oki, Japan, earthquake : first results2012

    • Author(s)
      Nanjo, K.Z.他13名, 4th Ogata, Y.13rd Zhuang, J
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int

      Volume: 191 Pages: 653-658

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of static stress change forecasting with prospective and blind tests2012

    • Author(s)
      Parsons, T., Ogata, Y., Zhuang, J. and Geist, E.L.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int.

      Volume: 188 Pages: 1425-1440

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China2012

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang J. and Jiang C
    • Journal Title

      Tectonophysics

      Volume: 524-525 Pages: 155-164

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Revisiting the global detection capability of earthquakes during the period immediately after a large earthquake : considering the influence of intermediate-depth and deep earthquakes2012

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T.
    • Journal Title

      Research in Geophysics

      Volume: 2 Pages: 24-28

    • DOI

      10.4081/rg.2012.e4

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The Mw9.0 northeast Japan earthquake : total rupture of a basement asperity2012

    • Author(s)
      Hashimoto, C., Noda, A. and Matsu'ura, M.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int.

      Volume: 189 Pages: 1-5

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Pre-seismic anomalies in seismicity and crustal deformation : case studies of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake of M6.9 and the 2007 Chuetsu-oki earthquake of M6.8 after the 2004 Chuetsu earthquake of M6.82011

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. J. Int.

      Volume: 186 Pages: 331-348

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Statistical Analysis of Seismicity In a wide region around the 1998 Mw 8.1 Balleny Islands Earthquake in the Antarctic Plate2011

    • Author(s)
      Himeno, T., Kanao, M. and Ogata, Y.
    • Journal Title

      Polar Science

      Volume: 5 Pages: 421-431

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis2011

    • Author(s)
      Zechar J. D., Hardebeck J. L., Michael A. J., Naylor M., Steacy S., Wiemer S., Zhuang J., and the CORSSA working group
    • Journal Title

      Seismological Research Letters

      Volume: 82 Pages: 686-690

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An improved version of the Load/Unload Response Ratio method for forecasting strong aftershocks2011

    • Author(s)
      Zhang L.P. and Zhuang J.
    • Journal Title

      Tectonophysics

      Volume: 509 Pages: 191-197

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Basic models of seismicity : spatiotemporal models2011

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang J., Werner M.J., Hainzl S., Harte D., and Zhou S.
    • Journal Title

      CORSSA

    • DOI

      10.5078/corssa-07487583

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Statistics between mainshocks and foreshocks in Italy and Southern California2011

    • Author(s)
      Marzocchi W. and Zhuang J.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett

      Volume: 38 Pages: L09310

    • DOI

      10.1029/2011GL047165

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model2011

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang J.
    • Journal Title

      Earth Planets Space

      Volume: 63 Pages: 207-216

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Using the 2011 Mw9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to test the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure2011

    • Author(s)
      Toda, S., Lin, J. and Stein, R. S.
    • Journal Title

      Earth Planets Space

      Volume: 63 Pages: 725-730

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Widespread seismicity excitation throughout central Japan following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku earthquake and its interpretation by Coulomb stress transfer2011

    • Author(s)
      Toda, S., Stein, R. S. and Lin, J.
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett

      Volume: 38

    • DOI

      10.1029/2011GL047834

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Rate/state Coulomb stress transfer model for the CSEP Japan seismicity forecast2011

    • Author(s)
      Toda, S. and Enescu, B.
    • Journal Title

      Earth Planets Space

      Volume: 63 Pages: 171-185

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Bayesian forecasting of the recurrent earthquakes and its predictive performance for a small sample size2011

    • Author(s)
      Nomura, S., Ogata, Y., Komaki, F. and Toda, S.
    • Journal Title

      J Geophys. Res

      Volume: 116 Pages: B04315

    • DOI

      10.1029/2010JB007917

    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Foreshock phenomena and the Båth law implied by generic earthquake clustering2013

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J
    • Organizer
      ERI seismicity seminar, Earthquake Research Institute
    • Place of Presentation
      The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2013-09-19
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 短期予測と統計モデル,会重点検討課題「地震の短期予測の現状と評価」2013

    • Author(s)
      尾形良彦
    • Organizer
      第200回地震予知連絡会議
    • Place of Presentation
      九段第二合同庁舎,東京(日本)
    • Year and Date
      2013-08-21
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Real-time foreshock discrimination2013

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8)
    • Place of Presentation
      Peking University, Beijing, China
    • Year and Date
      2013-08-13
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Test seismicity anomalies by using the ETAS model as null hypothesis2013

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J
    • Organizer
      8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8)
    • Place of Presentation
      Peking University, Beijing, China
    • Year and Date
      2013-08-13
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A Bayesian approach to estimate the periodic change in earthquake detection capability and its applications to JMA catalogue2013

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T.
    • Organizer
      8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8)
    • Place of Presentation
      Peking University, Beijing, China
    • Year and Date
      2013-08-13
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research2013

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei8)
    • Place of Presentation
      Peking University, Beijing, China
    • Year and Date
      2013-08-10
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 実践的地震予測に向けた研究について2013

    • Author(s)
      尾形良彦
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2013年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ国際会議場, 千葉市
    • Year and Date
      2013-05-21
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] History-dependent magnitude forecast by statistical discrimination of foreshocks, SCEC/CSEP Workshop on Testing External Forecasts and Predictions2013

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      Davidson Conference Center
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, U.S.A.
    • Year and Date
      2013-05-07
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Analysis of Induced seismicity after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by non-stationary ETAS models2013

    • Author(s)
      Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      The Second International CORSSA Workshop, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2013-01-24
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] A prospect of earthquake prediction research2013

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      The Second International CORSSA Workshop, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2013-01-22
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Daily and seasonal variations in earthquake detection capability : quantitative evaluation through Bayesian approach2013

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T
    • Organizer
      The Second International CORSSA Workshop, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2013-01-22
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, its seismic cycle, and postseismic hazard viewed from onshore geologic and geomorphic investigations2012

    • Author(s)
      Toda, S., Meghraoui, M., Tsutsumi, H., Ferry, M., Haraguchi, T., Mechernich, S. and Okumura, K
    • Organizer
      2012 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    • Place of Presentation
      Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A.
    • Year and Date
      2012-12-07
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Residual Analysis in Statistical Seismology and Discovering Seismicity Anomalies2012

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      The 2nd Institute of Mathematical Statistics Asia Pacific Rim Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Tsukuba City, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-07-03
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Scoring Annual Earthquake Predictions in China, SCEC CSEP Workshop : Final Evaluation of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) Experiment and the Future of Earthquake Forecasting2012

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J
    • Organizer
      Rancho Las Palmas Resort
    • Place of Presentation
      Rancho Mirage, CA, U.S.A
    • Year and Date
      2012-06-07
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Some Issues and Proposals for Operational Space-Time Forecasting and Their Evaluations, SCEC CSEP Workshop : Final Evaluation of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) Experiment and the Future of Earthquake Forecasting2012

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      Rancho Las Palmas Resort
    • Place of Presentation
      Rancho Mirage, CA, U.S.A
    • Year and Date
      2012-06-06
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 東北地方太平洋沖地震による内陸誘発地震活動の減衰と継続性2012

    • Author(s)
      遠田晋次
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2012年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ国際会議場, 千葉市
    • Year and Date
      2012-05-22
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Delaunay-based Bayesian seismicity models : Introduction to a program package, International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes2012

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-14
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Systematic errors in the inversion analysis of GPS array data to estimate interseismic slip-deficit rates at plate interfaces2012

    • Author(s)
      Matsu'ura, M
    • Organizer
      International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-14
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] On the criticality of branching models for earthquake occurrences, International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes2012

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J
    • Organizer
      The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-13
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Daily variation of the detection capability of earthquake and its influence on the completeness magnitude2012

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T
    • Organizer
      International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-13
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Detecting misfits of the ETAS for seismicity anomalies2012

    • Author(s)
      Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-13
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Space-time models of repeating earthquakes in Parkfield segment2012

    • Author(s)
      Nomura, S., Ogata, Y. and Nadeau, R
    • Organizer
      International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-13
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Widespread seismicity excitation and seismic shadow following the 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and its implications for seismic hazard2012

    • Author(s)
      Toda, S
    • Organizer
      International symposium on statistical modeling and real-time probability forecasting for earthquakes, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
    • Place of Presentation
      Tachikawa City, Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-12
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Modeling of earthquake occurrence for predicting seismic activity and discovering seismicity anomalies, ESF-JSPS Frontier Science Conference Series for Young Researchers2012

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      The Four Seasons Hotel Tokyo at Chinzan-so
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-01
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Diagnosis of seismic anomalies and stress changes : Case studies from the recent earthquakes in and around Japan2011

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Statistical and Physical Modelling of Earthquake Processes
    • Place of Presentation
      GNS Science, Avalon, Lower Hutt, New Zealand
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-27
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The M9 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and statistical seismology2011

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      Seminar series in honour of David Vere-Jones
    • Place of Presentation
      Waikanae, New Zealand
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-26
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 非地震性すべりと地震活動異常と地殻変動異常2011

    • Author(s)
      尾形良彦
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2011年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      静岡県コンベンションアーツセンター・グランシップ, 静岡市
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-13
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 東北地方太平洋沖地震と統計地震学2011

    • Author(s)
      尾形良彦
    • Organizer
      2011年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      九州大学伊都キャンパス, 福岡市
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-05
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Seismic and geodetic anomalies preceding the rupture around the focal region : Applications of the ETAS model2011

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 8th Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Taipei International Convention Center, Taipei, Taiwan
    • Year and Date
      2011-08-10
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Next-day Earthquake Forecasts Generated by the ETAS Model2011

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J. and Nanio, K.Z
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geosciences Society(AOGS) 8th Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Taipei International Convention Center, Taipei, Taiwan
    • Year and Date
      2011-08-10
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Foreshock phenomena and the Båth law implied by generic earthquake clustering2011

    • Author(s)
      Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Ogata, Y. and Marzocchi, W
    • Organizer
      7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7)
    • Place of Presentation
      Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-26
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] CORSSA : Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis - Status & Outlook - Discussion2011

    • Author(s)
      Zechar, J.D., Hardebeck, J.L., Michael, A.J., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S. and Zhuang, J
    • Organizer
      7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7)
    • Place of Presentation
      Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-26
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Anomalous seismic activities before and after the M9 Tohoku-oki Earthquake2011

    • Author(s)
      Ogata, Y
    • Organizer
      7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7)
    • Place of Presentation
      Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-25
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The estimation of a slip distribution of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku earthquake (Mw=9.0) based on the spatial distribution of its aftershocks and rateand state friction law2011

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T
    • Organizer
      7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7)
    • Place of Presentation
      Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-25
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 地震学が越えなければならない壁 : "想定外"の超巨大地震2011

    • Author(s)
      松浦充宏
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2011年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ国際会議場, 千葉市
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-25
    • Invited
  • [Remarks] リスク解析戦略研究センター地震予測解析プロジェクト

    • URL

      http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg.html

  • [Remarks] Statistical Seismology Research Project(同上英語版)

    • URL

      http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssgE.html

  • [Remarks] 代表者尾形良彦個人ホームページ

    • URL

      http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/JAPINDEX.html

  • [Remarks] Home Page of Yosi Ogata(同上英語版)

    • URL

      http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/index.html

  • [Remarks] 科研費グループの活動,社会活動・社会への貢献,成果,メンバー研究論文(非査読論文を含む),学会発表(セミナー,発表予定を含む)など余すことなく準リアルタイムで掲示している.

  • [Patent(Industrial Property Rights)] 余震予 測装置, 余震予測法, および, プログラム2013

    • Inventor(s)
      近江崇宏, 尾形良彦, 平田祥人, 合原一幸
    • Industrial Property Rights Holder
      東京大学
    • Industrial Property Rights Type
      特許(Patent)
    • Industrial Property Number
      特願2013-99426号
    • Filing Date
      2013-05-09

URL: 

Published: 2015-06-25  

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