2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Strategic research of effective prediction to increase the probability gain statistical space-time model for diagnosing abnormal seismic activity
| Project/Area Number |
23240039
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | The Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
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Principal Investigator |
OGATA Yosihiko 統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 名誉教授 (70000213)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
ZHUANG Jiancang 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 准教授 (70465920)
KATO Shogo 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 助教 (60468535)
MATSU'URA Mitsuhiro 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所, 特任教授/外来研究員 (00114645)
SUGAYA Katsunori 情報・システム研究機構, 統計数理研究所 (40598661)
TODA Shinji 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (80313047)
TSURUOKA Hirosi 東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (10280562)
IWATA Takaki 早稲田大学, 国際教養学術院, 助教/情報 (30418991)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011-04-01 – 2014-03-31
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| Keywords | 点過程モデリング / 時空間ETASモデル / 時空間ＢＰＴモデル / 前震の確率予測 / 余震の直後確率予測 / 非定常ETASモデル / 群発地震 / 繰り返し地震 |
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| Research Abstract |
(1) We have completed beta version of the software of Bayesian models, such as hierarchical space-time ETAS models, which can be adapted to regional characteristics of seismic activity. Some programs have been provided for prediction experiment in California (UCERF3). (2) Research for real-time prediction of the probability of aftershocks within one day after the mainshock has been successful. (3) We have empirically demonstrated that predicting the probability of a major earthquake based on statistical discrimination of foreshocks. (4) We have developed a non-stationary BPT model for analyzing repeating earthquakes to visualize the space-time variation of stress changes on the plate boundary beneath the seafloor. (5) We have developed a non-stationary ETAS model to capture the pore fluid pressure changes on the faults from the earthquake swarm data.
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Research Products
(87 results)
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[Journal Article] Comprehensive and topical evaluations of earthquake forecasts in terms of number, time, space, and magnitude2013
Author(s)
Ogata, Y., Katsura, K., Falcone, G., Nanjo, K.Z. and Zhuang, J
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Journal Title
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.
Volume: 103
Pages: 1692-1708
Peer Reviewed
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[Journal Article] Statistical modeling of earthquake occurrences based on external geophysical observations : with an illustrative application to the ultra-low frequency ground electric signals observed in the Beijing region2013
Author(s)
Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D., Ma, L. and Guan, H
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Journal Title
In Imaging, Modeling and Assimilation in Seismology - Volume II, edited by Li Y., Germany : De Gruyte
Peer Reviewed
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[Presentation] The 2011 M=9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, its seismic cycle, and postseismic hazard viewed from onshore geologic and geomorphic investigations2012
Author(s)
Toda, S., Meghraoui, M., Tsutsumi, H., Ferry, M., Haraguchi, T., Mechernich, S. and Okumura, K
Organizer
2012 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Place of Presentation
Moscone Center, San Francisco, U.S.A.
Year and Date
2012-12-07
Invited
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[Presentation] CORSSA : Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis - Status & Outlook - Discussion2011
Author(s)
Zechar, J.D., Hardebeck, J.L., Michael, A.J., Naylor, M., Steacy, S., Wiemer, S. and Zhuang, J
Organizer
7th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei7)
Place of Presentation
Nomikos Conference Center, Thera (Santorini), Greece
Year and Date
2011-05-26
Invited
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[Remarks] 科研費グループの活動,社会活動・社会への貢献,成果,メンバー研究論文(非査読論文を含む),学会発表(セミナー,発表予定を含む)など余すことなく準リアルタイムで掲示している.
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