2013 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Efficacy of Trade Sanctions
| Project/Area Number |
23530262
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Applied economics
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| Research Institution | Hokkaido University |
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Principal Investigator |
OHNO Yuka 北海道大学, 経済学研究科(研究院), 准教授 (50598480)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2013
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| Keywords | 貿易制裁 |
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| Research Abstract |
We examine the efficacy of trade sanctions in stopping nuclear proliferation. A target's nuclear program is modeled as a dynamic stochastic R&D process. We find that when a sanctioning country cannot pre-commit to keeping sanctions in force long after a target becomes a nuclear power, sanctions are not only inefficacious but they backfire, spurring a target to intensify its effort to complete the nuclear program. If the nuclear program has several stages, hitting a target hardest early in the program is more likely to halt the program than the policy of gradually increasing sanctions as a target progresses.
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