International mathematical epidemiological study for future prediction about mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma with districts and birth year

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24590793
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Public health/Health science
• Research Institution: Hiroshima University
• Principal Investigator: TANAKA Junko 広島大学, 医歯薬保健学研究院, 教授 (70155266)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): KATAYAMA Keiko 広島大学, 大学院医歯薬保健学研究院, 講師 (50304415) ; MATSUO Junko 広島大学, 大学院医歯薬保健学研究院, 助教 (70570232) ; AKITA Tomoyuki 広島大学, 大学院医歯薬保健学研究院, 特任助教 (80609925)
• Research Collaborator: Michael Busch サンフランシスコ血液センター, Prof. ; Miriam J Alter CDC, Dr. ; Zanevskaia Liudmila Iosyphovna , Dr. ; Nguyen Van Nhon , ビントン県保健局長 ; Do Huy Son , ベトナムのビントン県保健所長 ; Svay Somana カンボジア保健省 ; Lim Olline カンボジア保健省
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 肝炎肝癌対策 / 国際情報交換 / 感染症 / 数理疫学モデル / 肝炎ウイルス感染 / 肝癌死亡 / カンボジア / ベトナム

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We investigated prevalence of HBV and HCV infections among general population in Cambodia and Vietnam by the epidemiological surveys. Prevalence of HBsAg, anti-HCV and HCV RNA were 4.6％,5.8%, 2.3% in Cambodia and 15.3%, 3.3% and 1.8% in Vietnam. We have simulated the mortality due to hepatocellular carcinoma by the age-period-cohort (APC) model with use of sex- and age-specific mortality data during 1940 through 2010 in Japan for the purpose of validating the utility and assessing the limitation of this model. The observed HCC mortality in 2010 in males was lower than the predicted, and corresponded to 72.3% of the predicted data. This would be attributed to combined effects of medical interventions, such as antiviral treatments and screening for hepatitis viruses implemented.

Free Research Field

衛生学