A consideration on the recovery from disaster based on the convergence approach in growth studies

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 24730251
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Tohoku Gakuin University
• Principal Investigator: HOSOYA Kei 東北学院大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (40405890)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: 自然災害 / 成長理論 / 収束分析 / 社会的共通資本 / 経済政策

Outline of Final Research Achievements

This project theoretically and numerically investigated the recovery process from massive natural disaster, including the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (GEJET), by using a growth model characterized by public infrastructure and a capital deepening externality. In the disaster area, many people have concerns about the length of the recovery and the future of the town. In considering the recovery progress, we examine several economic policies that might help to shorten the recovery period. Our principal results are summarized as follows (10% capital destruction occurred in association with the GEJET is assumed). (1) The computed convergence rate decreases in the post-disaster period. (2) Such a slowdown extends the transition period. (3) Further study of the post-disaster case leads to an estimate of slightly below 20% as the present (in 2015) recovery status. (4) Selection and concentration of infrastructure provision are critical factors for speeding the recovery.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学