2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Japan's Current Account Dynamics in the Time of Population Aging and Decline
| Project/Area Number |
25245037
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Hitotsubashi University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
宇南山 卓 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 准教授 (20348840)
渡部 敏明 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 教授 (90254135)
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| Research Collaborator |
NAKATA Hayato 明星大学, 経済学部, 准教授
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-10-21 – 2017-03-31
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| Keywords | 経常収支 / 為替レート / 貯蓄投資バランス / 少子高齢化 / ベクトル自己回帰モデル / 石油価格 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
(1) The relationship between household age and its saving rate in Japan has changed over time. This explains a large part of household savings decline in recent years and possibly more important factor than population aging. It also seems that household saving decline has been partially offset by corporate saving increase. These empirical findings contradict with the premises of overlapping generations (OLG) model. Hence, the predictions of the impact of population aging on saving rates and current account based on simple OLG model has to be evaluated with a great caution. (2) We estimate the structural VAR model which can deal with the effects of oil price and exchange rate simultaneously. It is found that the main sources of Japan's current account fluctuations vary over time. The influence of the speculative fluctuation of exchange rate had been dominant in the 1980s. The influences of the global demand shock and crude oil price are found to be more important in the 2000s.
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| Free Research Field |
ファイナンス、マクロ経済学
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