Proposal of a use-friendly long-term earthquake forecast method that better reflects scientific knowledge

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25282111
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: Nagoya University
• Principal Investigator: Sagiya Takeshi 名古屋大学, 減災連携研究センター, 教授 (50362299)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): HASHIMOTO Manabu 京都大学, 防災研究所, 教授 (20293962) ; OKI Satoko 慶應義塾大学, 環境情報学部, 准教授 (40443337) ; HIROTA Sumire 東京都市大学, 環境情報学部, 教授 (90279703)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): NAKAYACHI Kazuya 同志社大学, 心理学部, 教授 (50212105) ; KOKETSU Kazuki 東京大学, 地震研究所, 教授 (90134634) ; NISHIMURA Takuya 京都大学, 防災研究所, 准教授 (90370808) ; HORI Takane 海洋研究開発機構, 地震津波予測研究グループ, 主任研究員 (00359176)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 地震発生長期評価 / 地震発生確率 / 地殻歪み / リスクコミュニケーション / 表現手法 / リスク認知

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We investigate long-term earthquake forecast method using crustal strain data that can reflect seismic potential. We found that a part of geodetic crustal strain contains inelastic strain that does not cause earthquakes. A trial to forecast earthquake numbers was successful although the number was a little overestimated. We also investigate how the long-term forecast can be used to promote people's preventing actions. Though the forecast information is effective in people's recognition of the earthquake risk, it is not sufficient to make people act for preventing disasters without additional information.

Free Research Field

固体地球物理学