Risk Score for the Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the Urban Japanese Population

2015 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25293147
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Epidemiology and preventive medicine
• Research Institution: National Cardiovascular Center Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: Kokubo Yoshihiro 国立研究開発法人国立循環器病研究センター, 病院, 医長 (20393217)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Keywords: 心房細動 / リスクスコア－ / 疫学 / 危険因子

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A total of 6,906 participants (30-84 years old) initially free of AF were prospectively followed up for incident AF in the Suita Study. Standard 12-lead ECGs were obtained from all subjects in the supine position. Participants were diagnosed with AF if AF or atrial flutter was present on ECGs obtained during a biannual routine health examination or if AF was indicated as a present illness by either annual questionnaires responses or participants' medical records during follow-up. Cox proportional hazard ratios were analyzed.
In 88,663 person-years of follow-up, 253 incident AF events occurred. Age, sex, body mass index and systolic blood pressure (systolic prehypertension with overweight or obesity, systolic hypertension with normal weight/overweight or obesity), valvular disease and/or heart murmur, ischemic heart disease, smoking, and excessive drinking were associated with incident AF (C-statistic 0.73; 95% confidence intervals, 0.70-0.75).

Free Research Field

予防医学