2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Risk evaluation of individuals and groups
| Project/Area Number |
25380472
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Research Field |
Management
|
|---|
| Research Institution | Tokyo Metropolitan University |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2018-03-31
|
| Keywords | リスク評価 / 意思決定 / 個人と集団 / エル・ファロル問題 |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We developed a serial decision-making game based on "El Farol Bar problem". Participants were 7 individuals and 7 groups. There were no significant differences between individuals and groups according to risk seeking, simplicity of forecasting, and the decision after success. Groups were inclined to repeat the failed decisions than individuals.
An experiment was conducted using undergraduate students (N = 226). Participants evaluated the risk of a certain kind of earthquake from analytical aspect (probability) and emotional aspect (fear). Participants who evaluated the probability first reported low score of fear (p<.001). Participants who evaluated fear first reported high score of probability (p<.01). It is implied that analytical evaluation decreases the emotion and emotional evaluation increases the subjective probability of the risk.
|
| Free Research Field |
意思決定
|
