Construction of the evaluation system for earthquake forecasting models based on preseismic phenomena

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25750149
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Natural disaster / Disaster prevention science
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: YOKOI Sayoko 東京大学, 地震研究所, 特任研究員 (70434842)
• Research Collaborator: OKADA Masami
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 地震先行現象 / 検証方法

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We built a system to improve the accuracy of earthquake forecasting model based on observing the phenomena correlated with the earthquake and estimating the earthquake occurrence (preceding model). Specifically, the system provides a platform for prospective forecasting based on preceding models, and a fairly evaluations of the score of the preceding models. As a result of this, suspicion of the preceding model which had been publicly announced as a retrospective forecasting - the prediction was modified by the modeler of the preceding model after the earthquake occurred - was dispelled. Then, we became able to know the real forecasting abilities of the preceding models. The modelers can grasp the ability of their models by repeating the submission and evaluation of their predictions using this system. This system leads to improvement of models.

Free Research Field

地震学