A Study on Macroeconomic Model of Price Fluctuation and Inventories Investment

2014 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 25885032
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Economic theory
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: TONOGI Akiyuki 一橋大学, 経済研究所, 特任講師 (20709688)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-08-30 – 2015-03-31
• Keywords: POSデータ / 消費者物価 / 特売行動 / プロダクト・イノベーション / （S,s）モデル

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Based on the empirical research on POS data，The five facts on the diversity of pricing behavior in retailers became clear. Implementing calibration of (S,s) Model, which is a Non-linear optimization model of retailer's behavior, we had successed to generate the simulation results which reproduce the characteristics of the diversity depends on the retailer's deep parameters, such as storage cost, menu cost, order cost, and demand curve parameter.
And we constructed a unit value price index based on the POS data, and decomposed the movements of the index into three factors: price change effect, substitution effects, and new product turnover effect. We discover the large minus contribution of substitution effect before the hiking consumption tax rate in April 2014, and also, we noticed the persistent higher contribution of the new product turnover effect after the event, which is the main cause of 1-1.5% inflation rate of the unit value price index during the FY2014.

Free Research Field

マクロ経済学