Study on comprehensive probability forecast of large earthquake

2016 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26240004
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Statistical science
• Research Institution: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• Principal Investigator: Ogata Yosihiko 統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 名誉教授 (70000213)
• Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha): Zhuang Jiancang 統計数理研究所, 准教授 (70465920) ; Enescu Bogdan 筑波大学, 生命環境科学研究科(系), 准教授 (40530978) ; Tsuruoka Hiroshi 東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (10280562) ; Nomura Shun'ichi 東京工業大学, 情報理工学(系)研究科, 助教 (70719640) ; Kumazawa Takao 統計数理研究所, 研究員 (60649482)
• Research Collaborator: Iwata Takaki 常盤大学, 准教授 ; Matsu'ura Mitsuhiro 東京大学, 名誉教授 ; Murata Yasuaki 産業技術総合研究所, 主任研究員 ; Omi Takahiro 東京大学, 生産技術研究所 学術振興会, 研究員 ; Han Peng 統計数理研究所, 特任研究員 ; Katsura Koichi 統計数理研究所, 元技術職員
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: 確率予測 / 余震 / 群発地震 / 小繰り返し地震 / 磁気異常 / 階層時空間ETASモデル / 非定常ETASモデル / リアルタイム予測

Outline of Final Research Achievements

(1) Regarding the aftershocks immediately after a major earthquake, we developed calculation methods for real-time prediction of aftershock probability that covers temporal and spatial imperfections of real-time data that are automatically determined by computer system without human-editing. It was incorporated into the forecasting system at the NIED institute.(2) We applied non-stationary ETAS model to East Izu volcanic swarm activities, and discovered that it is effective for accurate short-term prediction of swarm activity using the change of volumetric strain-meter data. This indicates effectiveness to predict rates of swarm activity caused by slow slips, magma or fluid intrusion.(3) We published special issue on "Earthquake Prediction and Statistical Model" for the research subjects of probabilistic prediction and distributed to earthquake disaster prevention-related communities.

Free Research Field

統計地震学