Development of sea ice forecast system based on observation, numerical model and data assimilation

2017 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26249133
• Research Institution: The University of Tokyo
• Principal Investigator: 山口 一 東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 教授 (20166622)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 小野 純 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 北極環境変動総合研究センター, 特任研究員 (20451411) ; 舘山 一孝 北見工業大学, 工学部, 准教授 (30374789) ; 羽角 博康 東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (40311641)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 北極海 / 海氷予測 / 現場観測 / 衛星リモートセンシング / 数値モデル / マイクロ波放射計 / 海氷漂流速度 / データ同化

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

昨年度開発した衛星搭載マイクロ波放射計AMSR-Eの観測データ（2002年～2011年）と海氷表面温度の客観解析データを同化することで北極海の海氷厚を推定する手法をAMSR2の観測データ（2012年～現在）へ応用し、AMSR-E同様に誤差の低減に成功した (Tateyama et al., 2018)。平成28年度から継続して6GHzと18GHz，36GHzの可搬型マイクロ波放射計を用いて陸上や海氷上の積雪観測を行い。積雪深と表面温度から推定海氷厚を補正する方法を検討した。
衛星リモートセンシングについては、マイクロ波放射計データから計算した海氷漂流速度の数値モデルへの同化をすすめた。また、マイクロ波放射計による海氷の収束発散と、現場観測による海氷厚変動データを比較し、海氷厚の変動メカニズムについての解析をすすめた。さらに、衛星搭載の光学センサーMODISによる可視画像を用いた5km解像度での海氷漂流速度を計算しモデル計算結果との比較を行った。
海氷海洋結合モデルおよび気候モデルを用いて、季節から数年スケールで変動する北極海の海氷面積の予測可能性を評価し、予測精度を改善するための鍵となるプロセスを明らかにした。特に、冬季北極海の海氷面積の予測には北大西洋からバレンツ海に流入する亜表層水が重要な役割を果たしていることを示した。さらに、北大西洋域の重要性を検証する実験を行ない、海氷の再現性に与える影響を調べた。
海氷海洋結合モデルへの海氷密接度，海氷厚，海氷漂流速度の同化手法の研究を進めた。水平空間解像度25kmの中解像度モデルに海氷データを同化しつつ計算した結果を、解像度2.5kmの高解像度領域モデルの境界条件および初期条件として使用すると、「半旬（5日間）予報で、氷縁誤差10km程度」という船員要求をほぼ満たす予報計算をできることが分かった。

Research Progress Status

29年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

29年度が最終年度であるため、記入しない。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Estimation of sea-ice thickness and volume in the Sea of Okhotsk based on ICESat data (2018)
  • Author(s): Nihashi, S., N. T. Kurtz, T. Markus, K. I. Ohshima, K. Tateyama, T. Toyota
  • Journal Title: Annals of Glaciology Volume: - Pages: 1～11
  • DOI: doi.org/10.1017/aog.2018.8
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] An algorithm for estimating sea-ice type from AMSR-E data in the Beaufort Sea (2018)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, Y., K. Tateyama, S. Hoshino
  • Journal Title: Okhotsk Sea and Polar Oceans Research Volume: 2 Pages: 1～6
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Development of a new algorithm to estimate Arctic sea-ice thickness based on Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 data (2018)
  • Author(s): Tateyama, K., J. Inoue, S. Hoshino, S. Sasaki, Y. Tanaka
  • Journal Title: Okhotsk Sea and Polar Oceans Research Volume: 2 Pages: 13～18
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Mechanisms influencing seasonal-to-interannual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC (2018)
  • Author(s): Ono, J., Tatebe, H., Komuro, Y., Nodzu, I., Ishii, M.
  • Journal Title: The Cryosphere Volume: 12 Pages: 675～683
  • DOI: doi:10.5194/tc-12-675-2018
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Regional and time series analysis on the relationship between sea ice motion and geostrophic wind in the Arctic (2018)
  • Author(s): Maeda, K., Yamaguchi, H., Kimura, N.
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans Volume: - Pages: 203～206
• [Journal Article] Short-term sea ice prediction for Arctic shipping (2018)
  • Author(s): De Silva, L.W.A., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans Volume: - Pages: 197～199
• [Journal Article] Prediction of autumn Arctic sea ice distribution (2018)
  • Author(s): Shiau, C.J., Yamaguchi, H., Kimura, N.
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans Volume: - Pages: 193～196
• [Journal Article] Field investigation of impinging seawater spray on the R/V Mirai using spray particle counter type sea spray meter (2018)
  • Author(s): Ozeki, T., Toda, T., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd Intern. Symp. Okhotsk Sea & Polar Ocean Volume: - Pages: 93～96
• [Journal Article] Field investigation of sea spray particles impinging on large vessels - Case study of the R/V Mirai (2018)
  • Author(s): Ozeki, T, Toda, S., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Journal Title: Abstracts of the 5th Intern. Symp. on Arctic Research Volume: - Pages: 1
• [Journal Article] Short-term sea ice forecasting during extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016 (2018)
  • Author(s): De Silva, L.W.A., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Journal Title: Abstracts of the 5th Intern. Symp. on Arctic Research Volume: - Pages: 1
• [Journal Article] Study on observation of ice condition and ship speed using satellite remote sensing in the Northern Sea Route (2018)
  • Author(s): Okuda, H., K. Tateyama, N. Otsuka
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd Intern. Symp. Okhotsk Sea & Polar Ocean Volume: - Pages: 97～100
• [Journal Article] Validation and evaluation of sea-ice thickness derived from satellite altimeter SIRAL in the Arctic (2018)
  • Author(s): Hoshino, S. and K. Tateyama
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd Intern. Symp. Okhotsk Sea & Polar Ocean Volume: - Pages: 43～46
• [Journal Article] The measurement of ice thickness using an electro-magnetic induction device onboard a sled in Saroma-ko Lagoon and at Syowa Station, Antarctica (2018)
  • Author(s): Kita, M., K. Tateyama, S. Hoshino, K. Nakamura
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd Intern. Symp. Okhotsk Sea & Polar Ocean Volume: - Pages: 143～146
• [Journal Article] Global dynamic window approach for ice sea navigation using vessel radar image (2018)
  • Author(s): Takagi, T. and K. Tateyama
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd Intern. Symp. Okhotsk Sea & Polar Ocean Volume: - Pages: 101～104
• [Journal Article] An algorithm for estimating sea-ice type from AMSR-E data in the Beaufort Sea (2018)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, Y., K. Tateyama, S. Hoshino
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd Intern. Symp. Okhotsk Sea & Polar Ocean Volume: - Pages: 37～42
• [Journal Article] Development of a new algorithm to estimate Arctic sea-ice thickness based on Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 data (2018)
  • Author(s): Tateyama, K., J. Inoue, S. Hoshino, S. Sasaki, Y. Tanaka
  • Journal Title: Proc. 33rd Intern. Symp. Okhotsk Sea & Polar Ocean Volume: - Pages: 47～52
• [Journal Article] The impact of data assimilation and atmospheric forcing data on predicting short-term sea ice distribution along the Northern sea route 雑誌名：Okhotsk Sea and Polar Ocean Research (2017)
  • Author(s): De Silva, L.W.A., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Journal Title: Okhotsk Sea and Polar Ocean Research Volume: 1 Pages: 1～6
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Improving numerical sea ice predictions in the Arctic Ocean by data assimilation using satellite observations (2017)
  • Author(s): Mudunkotuwa, D.Y., De Silva, L.W.A., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Journal Title: Okhotsk Sea and Polar Ocean Research Volume: 1 Pages: 7～11
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Numerical Study of oil spilled behavior under ice-covered area in the East Siberian Sea (2017)
  • Author(s): De Silva, L.W.A, Yamaguchi, H.
  • Journal Title: Proc. 24th Intern. Conf. Port and Ocean Eng. under Arctic Conditions, POAC'17 Volume: - Pages: 1～10
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Field investigation of sea spray particles impinging on large vessels - Case study of the R/V Mirai (2018)
  • Author(s): Ozeki, T., Toda, S., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Organizer: 5th Intern. Symp. on Arctic Research (ISAR-5)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Short-term sea ice forecasting during extreme Arctic cyclone in August 2016 (2018)
  • Author(s): De Silva, L.W.A., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Organizer: 5th Intern. Symp. on Arctic Research (ISAR-5)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Field investigation of impinging seawater spray on the R/V Mirai using spray particle counter type sea spray meter (2018)
  • Author(s): Ozeki, T., Toda, S., Yamaguchi, H.
  • Organizer: 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans (Mombetsu-18 Symposium)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Prediction of autumn Arctic sea ice distribution (2018)
  • Author(s): Shiau C.J., Yamaguchi, H., Kimura, N.
  • Organizer: 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans (Mombetsu-18 Symposium)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Short-term sea ice prediction for Arctic shipping (2018)
  • Author(s): De Silva, L.W.A, Yamaguchi, H.
  • Organizer: 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans (Mombetsu-18 Symposium)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Regional and time series analysis on the relationship between sea ice motion and geostrophic wind in the Arctic (2018)
  • Author(s): Maeda, K., Yamaguchi, H., Kimura, N.
  • Organizer: 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans (Mombetsu-18 Symposium)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Arctic challenge for ice observation and ice navigation (2018)
  • Author(s): Otsuka, N. and K. Tateyama
  • Organizer: Fifth International Symposium on Arctic Research (ISAR-5)
• [Presentation] Navigable speed related to ice condition along the Northern Sea Route (2018)
  • Author(s): Otsuka, N., K. Izumiyama, K. Tateyama
  • Organizer: Fifth International Symposium on Arctic Research (ISAR-5)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Sea Route Search Using the Global Dynamic Windows Approach including Ice Concentration (2018)
  • Author(s): Takagi, T. and K. Tateyama
  • Organizer: Fifth International Symposium on Arctic Research (ISAR-5)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Estimation of sailing speed through ice covered waters on the northern sea route (2018)
  • Author(s): Tateyama, K., H. Okuda, N. Otsuka
  • Organizer: Fifth International Symposium on Arctic Research (ISAR-5)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Improvement of an algorithm to estimate the Arctic sea-ice thickness based on AMSR2 (2018)
  • Author(s): Tateyama, K., J. Inoue, T. Nakanowatari, S. Hoshino, Y. Tanaka
  • Organizer: Fifth International Symposium on Arctic Research (ISAR-5)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Satellite observation of the thickening of sea ice through the ice deformation (2018)
  • Author(s): Kimura, N., Hasumi, H., Itoh, M., Fukamachi, Y., Kikuchi, T., Moriya, E.
  • Organizer: 5th Intern. Symp. on Arctic Research (ISAR-5)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Prediction of the fall sea-ice cover in the Arctic (2018)
  • Author(s): Kimura, N., Hasumi, H.
  • Organizer: 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans (Mombetsu-18 Symposium)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Predictability of Arctic sea ice in a climate model MIROC: toward skillful seasonal forecasts (2018)
  • Author(s): Ono, J., Tatebe, H., Komuro, Y.
  • Organizer: 33rd International Symposium on Okhotsk Sea & Polar Oceans (Mombetsu-18 Symposium)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 安全かつ経済的な氷海航行のために (2017)
  • Author(s): 山口一
  • Organizer: 第193回舶用プロペラ研究会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 北極海の商業航路利用に向けて (2017)
  • Author(s): 山口一
  • Organizer: 「南極＆北極の魅力」講演会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 北極の急激な温暖化と北極海航路の可能性 (2017)
  • Author(s): 山口一
  • Organizer: HAS研第40回研究会（Hitachiアカデミックシステム研究会）「北極・南極～その現在と未来」
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Numerical Study of oil spilled behavior under ice-covered area in the East Siberian Sea (2017)
  • Author(s): De Silva, L.W.A, Yamaguchi, H.
  • Organizer: 24th Intern. Conf. Port and Ocean Eng. under Arctic Conditions, POAC'17
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 北極海航路実現に向けた総合的研究と課題 (2017)
  • Author(s): 山口一, 大塚夏彦
  • Organizer: 土木学会第42回海洋開発シンポジウム特別セッション
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A proposal for a sea-ice thickness estimation algorithm using the satellite passive microwave radiometer AMSR2 in Lutzow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica during summer season (2017)
  • Author(s): Hoshino, S., K. Tateyama, S. Ushio
  • Organizer: International Glaciological Society, Polar Ice, Polar Climate, Polar Change, Remote sensing and modeling advances in understanding the cryosphere
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Sea-ice thickness and volume in the Sea of Okhotsk estimated from ICESat data (2017)
  • Author(s): Nihashi, S., N. T Kurtz, T. Markus, K. I. Ohshima, K. Tateyama, T. Toyota
  • Organizer: International Glaciological Society, Polar Ice, Polar Climate, Polar Change, Remote sensing and modeling advances in understanding the cryosphere
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Estimation of the Arctic sea-ice thickness based on AMSR2 (2017)
  • Author(s): Tateyama, K., J. Inoue, S. Hoshino, T. Nakanowatari, S. Sasaki, Y. Tanaka
  • Organizer: The Eighth Symposium on Polar Science
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 北極海航路におけるアイスクラスを考慮した氷況と船速に関する研究 (2017)
  • Author(s): 奥田駿，舘山一孝，大塚夏彦，森下裕士
  • Organizer: 雪氷研究大会（2017・十日町）
• [Presentation] AMSR-E/AMSR2 を用いた夏季北極海の海氷厚推定アルゴリズムの改良 (2017)
  • Author(s): 舘山一孝，中晴彦，星野聖太，石原宙，徳留泰行，佐々木奨太，田中康弘
  • Organizer: 雪氷研究大会（2017・十日町）
• [Presentation] 近赤外線およびマイクロ波を用いた着氷モニタリングに関する試験 (2017)
  • Author(s): 中島知幸，高橋尚人，舘山一孝，飯島由美
  • Organizer: 雪氷研究大会（2017・十日町）
• [Presentation] 北極海における衛星高度計SIRAL を用いた海氷厚の推定 －南極海での利用を目指して－ (2017)
  • Author(s): 星野聖太，舘山一孝，奥田駿，田中康弘
  • Organizer: 雪氷研究大会（2017・十日町）
• [Presentation] Influence of winter weather on the summer sea ice cover in the Arctic (2017)
  • Author(s): Kimura, N., Hasumi, H.
  • Organizer: Arctic Science Summit Week 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 北極海における夏季の海氷・海洋場と秋季海氷拡大の関係 (2017)
  • Author(s): 木村詞明, 羽角博康
  • Organizer: 日本海洋学会秋季大会
• [Presentation] Predictability of a drastic reduction in the Arctic sea ice with climate model MIROC (2017)
  • Author(s): Ono, J., Tatebe, H., Komuro, Y.
  • Organizer: The Eighth Symposium on Polar Science
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 北極海の季節から数年スケールで変動する海氷の予測可能性 (2017)
  • Author(s): 小野純，建部洋晶，小室芳樹
  • Organizer: 日本海洋学会秋季大会
• [Presentation] 気候モデルを用いた北極研究 (2017)
  • Author(s): 小野純，建部洋晶，小室芳樹
  • Organizer: J-ArcNet研究集会
• [Presentation] Predictability of the Arctic sea-ice extent by climate model MIROC (2017)
  • Author(s): Ono, J., Tatebe, H., Komuro, Y.
  • Organizer: Arctic Science Summit Week 2017
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Mechanisms influencing seasonal-to-interannual prediction skill of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean in MIROC (2017)
  • Author(s): Ono, J., Tatebe, H., Komuro, Y.
  • Organizer: FAMOS2017
  • Int'l Joint Research