Study on physics parameter uncertainty of climate change attribution

2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26281013
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Environmental dynamic analysis
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: Shiogama Hideo 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (30391113)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 横畠 徳太 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (20391170) ; 渡部 雅浩 東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 教授 (70344497) ; 田中 克政 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (90747065)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Keywords: 気候変動

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using the MIROC5 climate model, we investigated the physics parameter uncertainties in the attribution of the past climate change and the future projection. At first we performed the perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) of atmospheric model to select the parameter sets for the coupled atmosphere-ocean model (AOGCM) experiments. We also performed the PPE of AOGCM. The largest parametric uncertainty source of the past temperature changes was found in the temperature responses to aerosols. In the future projection, the greenhouse gas uncertainty increased, while the aerosol uncertainty decreased.

Free Research Field

気象学