2017 Fiscal Year Final Research Report
Do local land use changes give effect to the urban climate for a long period?
| Project/Area Number |
26420631
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Town planning/Architectural planning
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| Research Institution | Kwansei Gakuin University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2014-04-01 – 2018-03-31
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| Keywords | 都市化 / ヒートアイランド / GIS / 土地利用変化 / ベイズモデル / MCMC / 条件付き空間的自己回帰モデル |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
A mathematical model that predicts land use change in depopulating cities is proposed by use of the spatial model enhanced by Bayesian statistical model. The model is a modified form of the intrinsic Gaussian CAR model with Bayesian scheme, and considers intensities of effects of urbanization in surrounding areas as random variables in a stochastic way. In the model the intensities of the effects are regarded to vary randomly depending on their places but, on the other hand, controlled by the precision value of the prior distribution. It enables us to estimate not only the intensities of the effect but also effects of other important factors more accurately than the ordinal regression model.
Furthermore, future land use changes are simulated by using this model and parameters obtained from the preceding calculations, and possible future rises of temperature caused by the spread of urbanizations are estimated.
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| Free Research Field |
建築学・都市環境学
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