Chort based Indivualized Risk Estimation By biomarkers and Machine Learning

2016 Fiscal Year Annual Research Report

• Project/Area Number: 26460790
• Research Institution: National Cardiovascular Center Research Institute
• Principal Investigator: 西村 邦宏 国立研究開発法人国立循環器病研究センター, 研究開発基盤センター, 室長 (70397834)
• Project Period (FY): 2014-04-01 – 2017-03-31
• Keywords: コホート研究 / リスク予測 / 機械学習 / 虚血性心疾患

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

発症に関する前向き研究データから、古典的サポートベクターマシンおよびランダムフォレストの複数モデルの組み合わせにより、日常診療上よく使用される約40項目のルーチン検査から、ＭＩＤＡＳ研究の総数1920症例に基づき、アンサンブル学習を用いた複数モデルの組み合わせによMACE(Major Adverse Cardiac Event)予測モデルを構築し、約４０モデルの識別距離の組み合わせから偽陽性5％程度、偽陰性立5％程度で予測するモデルを構築し、既存予測モデルの成績より良好な成績を得た.この成績はGRACR研究などからの既存のＭＡＣＥ予測モデルの成績より感度、特異度ともに約20％程度向上しおり、現在特許出願中である。またMRIを用いた不安定プラークの画像上の特徴に関する研究を世界に先駆けて行い、冠動脈高輝度プラーク（冠動脈 high-intensity plaque:HIP）の予測精度に関して検討を行った。
更に、同群に対して、人工知能応用による自然言語処理を行い、胸痛、夜間発作性呼吸困難当の症候を電子カルテの記述から抽出を行うロジックを構築した。ＧＲＡＣＥなど既存の予測ツールに患者の症候をプラスした場合はより予測精度が向上した（ＡＵＣ　0.82ｖｓ　0.74）本研究の成果をもとに、複合的なリスクを有数患者群に対して機械学習を行い、個人個人のリスクにより個別化された高血圧治療戦略を採用することにより医療費削減に成功している例（Ann Intern Med. 2011）などのように、医療費削減につながる個別化医療推進を行うことも今後可能と思われる

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Homogeneous Assays for LDL-C and HDL-C are Reliable in Both the Postprandial and Fasting State. (2017)
  • Author(s): Miida T, Nishimura K, Hirayama S, Miyamoto Y, Nakamura M, Masuda D, Yamashita S, Ushiyama M, Komori T, Fujita N, Yokoyama S, Teramoto T.
  • Journal Title: J Atheroscler Thromb Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.5551
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Long-Term Outcomes of Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Without Creatine Kinase Elevation - The J-MINUET Study. (2017)
  • Author(s): Ishihara M, Nishimura K, Miyamoto Y, Ogawa H,et al.
  • Journal Title: J Atheroscler Thromb Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1253
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Development and validation of a score for evaluating comprehensive stroke care capabilities: J-ASPECT Study. (2017)
  • Author(s): Kada A, Nishimura K, Nakagawara J, Ogasawara K, Ono J, Shiokawa Y, Aruga T, Miyachi S, Nagata I, Toyoda K, Matsuda S, Suzuki A, Kataoka H, Nakamura F, Kamitani S, Iihara K; J-ASPECT Study Collaborators..
  • Journal Title: BMC Neurol. Volume: 17 Pages: 46
  • DOI: 10.1186
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Diabetes and lifetime risk of stroke and subtypes in an urban middle-aged population. (2017)
  • Author(s): Turin TC, Okamura T, Rumana N, Afzal AR, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Nakai M, Takegami M, Nishimura K, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: J Diabetes Complications. Volume: 31 Pages: 831-835
  • DOI: 10.1016
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of Acute Kidney Injury on In-Hospital Outcomes of Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction - Results From the Japanese Registry of Acute Myocardial Infarction Diagnosed by Universal Definition (J-MINUET) Substudy. (2017)
  • Author(s): Kuji S, Kosuge M, Kimura K, Nakao K, Ozaki Y, Ako J, Noguchi T, Yasuda S, Suwa S, Fujimoto K, Nakama Y, Morita T, Shimizu W, Saito Y, Hirohata A, Morita Y, Inoue T, Nishimura K, Miyamoto Y, Ishihara M; J-MINUET Investigators..
  • Journal Title: Circ J. Volume: 81 Pages: 733-739
  • DOI: 10.1253
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Surgical Indication for Chronic Aortic Dissection in Descending Thoracic and Thoracoabdominal Aorta. (2017)
  • Author(s): Oda T, Minatoya K, Sasaki H, Tanaka H, Seike Y, Itonaga T, Inoue Y, Higashi M, Nishimura K, Kobayashi J.
  • Journal Title: Circ Cardiovasc Interv. Volume: 10 Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1161
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Risk for metabolic diseases in normal weight individuals with visceral fat accumulation: a cross-sectional study in Japan. (2017)
  • Author(s): Tatsumi Y, Nakao YM, Masuda I, Higashiyama A, Takegami M, Nishimura K, Watanabe M, Ohkubo T, Okamura T, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: BMJ Open. Volume: 7 Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1136
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Delivering Knowledge of Stroke to Parents Through Their Children Using a Manga for Stroke Education in Elementary School. (2017)
  • Author(s): Ishigami A, Yokota C, Nishimura K, Ohyama S, Tomari S, Hino T, Arimizu T, Wada S, Toyoda K, Minematsu K.
  • Journal Title: J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. Volume: 26 Pages: 431-437
  • DOI: 10.1016
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Cardiovascular profile score as a predictor of acute intrapartum non-reassuring fetal status in infants with congenital heart defects. (2016)
  • Author(s): Miyoshi T, Katsuragi S, Neki R, Kurosaki KI, Shiraishi I, Nakai M, Nishimura K, Yoshimatsu J, Ikeda T.
  • Journal Title: J Matern Fetal Neonatal Med. Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1080
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Honda Y, Nagai T, Ikeda Y, Sakakibara M, Asakawa N, Nagano N, Nakai M, Nishimura K, Sugano Y, Ohta-Ogo K, Asaumi Y, Aiba T, Kanzaki H, Kusano K, Noguchi T, Yasuda S, Tsutsui H, Ishibashi-Ueda H, Anzai T. (2016)
  • Author(s): Myocardial Immunocompetent Cells and Macrophage Phenotypes as Histopathological Surrogates for Diagnosis of Cardiac Sarcoidosis in Japanese.
  • Journal Title: J Am Heart Assoc. Volume: 5 Pages: -
  • DOI: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of symptom presentation on in-hospital outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction. (2016)
  • Author(s): Fujino M, Ishihara M, Ogawa H, Nakao K, Yasuda S, Noguchi T, Ozaki Y, Kimura K, Suwa S, Fujimoto K, Nakama Y, Morita T, Shimizu W, Saito Y, Hirohata A, Morita Y, Inoue T, Okamura A, Uematsu M, Ako J, Nakai M, Nishimura K, Miyamoto Y; J-MINUET Investigators.
  • Journal Title: J Cardiol. Volume: 5087 Pages: 30240-30244
  • DOI: 10.1016
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Circulating Omega-6, But Not Omega-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids, Are Associated with Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure. (2016)
  • Author(s): Nagai T, Honda Y, Sugano Y, Nishimura K, Nakai M, Honda S, Iwakami N, Okada A, Asaumi Y, Aiba T, Noguchi T, Kusano K, Ogawa H, Yasuda S, Anzai T; NaDEF investigators..
  • Journal Title: PLoS One. Volume: 11 Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1371
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The Current Status of Cardiovascular Medicine in Japan - Analysis of a Large Number of Health Records From a Nationwide Claim-Based Database, JROAD-DPC. (2016)
  • Author(s): Yasuda S1, Nakao K, Nishimura K, Miyamoto Y, Sumita Y, Shishido T, Anzai T, Tsutsui H, Ito H, Komuro I, Saito Y, Ogawa H; on the behalf of JROAD Investigators.
  • Journal Title: Circ J. Volume: 80 Pages: 2327-2335
  • DOI: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Prognostic impact of chronic total coronary occlusion on long-term outcomes in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator recipients with ischaemic heart disease. (2016)
  • Author(s): Nishikawa T, Fujino M, Nakajima I, Asaumi Y, Kataoka Y, Anzai T, Kusano K, Noguchi T, Goto Y, Nishimura K, Miyamoto Y, Kiso K, Yasuda S.
  • Journal Title: Europace. Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Status and Future Perspectives of Utilizing Big Data in Neurosurgical and Stroke Research. (2016)
  • Author(s): Nishimura A, Nishimura K, Kada A, Iihara K; J-ASPECT Study GROUP..
  • Journal Title: Neurol Med Chir (Tokyo). Volume: 56 Pages: 655-663
  • DOI: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Current Trends and Healthcare Resource Usage in the Hospital Treatment of Primary Malignant Brain Tumor in Japan: A National Survey Using the Diagnostic Procedure Combination Database (J-ASPECT Study-Brain Tumor). (2016)
  • Author(s): Yoshimoto K, Kada A, Kuga D, Hatae R, Murata H, Akagi Y, Nishimura K, Kurogi R, Nishimura A, Hata N, Mizoguchi M, Sayama T, Iihara K.
  • Journal Title: Neurol Med Chir (Tokyo). Volume: 56 Pages: 664-673
  • DOI: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Predicting Coronary Heart Disease Using Risk Factor Categories for a Japanese Urban Population, and Comparison with the Framingham Risk Score: The Suita Study. (2016)
  • Author(s): Nishimura K, Okamura T, Watanabe M, Nakai M, Takegami M, Higashiyama A, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: J Atheroscler Thromb. Volume: 23 Pages: 1138-1139
  • DOI: 10.5551
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Validation of the Coronary Artery Bypass Graft SYNTAX Score (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus) as a Prognostic Marker for Patients With Previous Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention. (2016)
  • Author(s): Miyagi T, Asaumi Y, Nishimura K, Nakashima T, Sakamoto H, Nakao K, Kanaya T, Nagai T, Shimabukuro Y, Miyamoto Y, Fujita T, Kusano K, Anzai T, Kobayashi J, Noguchi T, Ogawa H, Yasuda S.
  • Journal Title: Circ Cardiovasc Interv. Volume: 9 Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1161
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Efficacy of urinary midkine as a biomarker in patients with acute kidney injury. (2016)
  • Author(s): Hayashi H, Sato W, Kosugi T, Nishimura K, Sugiyama D, Asano N, Ikematsu S, Komori K, Nishiwaki K, Kadomatsu K, Matsuo S, Maruyama S, Yuzawa Y.
  • Journal Title: Clin Exp Nephrol. Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Donor-transmitted Atherosclerosis Associated with Worsening Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy After Heart Transplantation: Serial Volumetric Intravascular Ultrasound Analysis. (2016)
  • Author(s): Watanabe T, Seguchi O, Yanase M, Fujita T, Murata Y, Sato T, Sunami H, Nakajima S, Kataoka Y, Nishimura K, Hisamatsu E, Kuroda K, Okada N, Hori Y, Wada K, Hata H, Ishibashi-Ueda H, Miyamoto Y, Fukushima N, Kobayashi J, Nakatani T.
  • Journal Title: Transplantation. Volume: - Pages: -
  • DOI: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Prognostic significance of endogenous erythropoietin in long-term outcome of patients with acute decompensated heart failure. (2016)
  • Author(s): Nagai T, Nishimura K, Honma T, Higashiyama A, Sugano Y, Nakai M, Honda S, Iwakami N, Okada A, Kawakami S, Kanaya T, Asaumi Y, Aiba T, Nishida Y, Kubota Y, Sugiyama D, Okamura T, Noguchi T, Kusano K, Ogawa H, Yasuda S, Anzai T; NaDEF investigators..
  • Journal Title: Eur J Heart Fail. Volume: 18 Pages: 803-813
  • DOI: 10.1002
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Underweight Young Women Without Later Weight Gain Are at High Risk for Osteopenia After Midlife: The KOBE Study. (2016)
  • Author(s): Tatsumi Y, Higashiyama A, Kubota Y, Sugiyama D, Nishida Y, Hirata T, Kadota A, Nishimura K, Imano H, Miyamatsu N, Miyamoto Y, Okamura T.
  • Journal Title: J Epidemiol. Volume: 6 Pages: -
  • DOI: -
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Prehospital antiplatelet use and functional status on admission of patients with non-haemorrhagic moyamoya disease: a nationwide retrospective cohort study (J-ASPECT study). (2016)
  • Author(s): Onozuka D, Hagihara A, Nishimura K, Kada A, Nakagawara J, Ogasawara K, Ono J, Shiokawa Y, Aruga T, Miyachi S, Nagata I, Toyoda K, Matsuda S, Suzuki A, Kataoka H, Nakamura F, Kamitani S, Nishimura A, Kurogi R, Sayama T, Iihara K; J-ASPECT Study Collaborators..
  • Journal Title: BMJ Open. Volume: 6 Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1136
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of hypertension on the lifetime risk of coronary heart disease. (2016)
  • Author(s): Turin TC, Okamura T, Raheen Afzal A, Rumana N, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao YM, Nakai M, Takegami M, Nishimura K, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: Hypertens Res. Volume: 39 Pages: 548-551
  • DOI: 10.1038
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Response to Letter Regarding Article, "Prevalence, Clinical Features, and Prognosis of Acute Myocardial Infarction Attributable to Coronary Artery Embolism". (2016)
  • Author(s): Noguchi T, Yasuda S, Shibata T, Kawakami S, Tanaka T, Asaumi Y, Kanaya T, Nagai T, Nakao K, Fujino M, Nagatsuka K, Ishibashi-Ueda H, Nishimura K, Miyamoto Y, Kusano K, Anzai T, Goto Y, Ogawa H.
  • Journal Title: Circulation. Volume: 133 Pages: -
  • DOI: 10.1161
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Comparison between the triglycerides standardization of routine methods used in Japan and the chromotropic acid reference measurement procedure used by the CDC Lipid Standardization Programme. (2016)
  • Author(s): Nakamura M, Iso H, Kitamura A, Imano H, Noda H, Kiyama M, Sato S, Yamagishi K, Nishimura K, Nakai M, Vesper HW, Teramoto T, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: Ann Clin Biochem. Volume: 53 Pages: 632-639
  • DOI: 10.1177
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Hypertension and lifetime risk of stroke. (2016)
  • Author(s): Turin TC, Okamura T, Afzal AR, Rumana N, Watanabe M, Higashiyama A, Nakao Y, Nakai M, Takegami M, Nishimura K, Kokubo Y, Okayama A, Miyamoto Y.
  • Journal Title: J Hypertens. Volume: 34 Pages: 116-122
  • DOI: 10.1097
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Suppressive effects of conversion from mycophenolate mofetil to everolimus for the development of cardiac allograft vasculopathy in maintenance of heart transplant recipients. (2016)
  • Author(s): Watanabe T, Seguchi O, Nishimura K, Fujita T, Murata Y, Yanase M, Sato T, Sunami H, Nakajima S, Hisamatsu E, Sato T, Kuroda K, Hieda M, Wada K, Hata H, Ishibashi-Ueda H, Miyamoto Y, Fukushima N, Kobayashi J, Nakatani T.
  • Journal Title: Int J Cardiol. Volume: - Pages: 307-314
  • DOI: 10.1016
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Calibration between the Estimated Probability of the Risk Assessment Chart of Japan Atherosclerosis Society and Actual Mortality Using External Population: Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in Japan (EPOCH-JAPAN). (2016)
  • Author(s): Nakai M, Miyamoto Y, Higashiyama A, Murakami Y, Nishimura K, Yatsuya H, Saitoh S, Sakata K, Iso H, Miura K, Ueshima H, Okamura T; EPOCH-JAPAN Research Group..
  • Journal Title: J Atheroscler Thromb. Volume: 23 Pages: 176-195
  • DOI: 10.5551
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] JROAD-DPCのデータの妥当性の検証 (2017)
  • Author(s): 西村邦宏
  • Organizer: 日本循環器学会
  • Place of Presentation: 石川県立音楽堂 他
  • Year and Date: 2017-03-17 – 2017-03-19
• [Presentation] JROAD-の今後の展望 (2017)
  • Author(s): 西村邦宏
  • Organizer: 日本循環器学会
  • Place of Presentation: 石川県立音楽堂 他
  • Year and Date: 2017-03-17 – 2017-03-19
• [Presentation] JROADを用いたビックデータ解析 (2016)
  • Author(s): 西村邦宏
  • Organizer: 日本心臓病学会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京国際ファーラム
  • Year and Date: 2016-09-23 – 2016-09-25