1986 Fiscal Year Final Research Report Summary
Study of Future Medical Manpower
| Project/Area Number |
59370050
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
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| Allocation Type | Single-year Grants |
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| Research Field |
医学一般
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| Research Institution | The University of Tsukuba |
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Principal Investigator |
KIIKUNI Kenzo The University of Tsukuba, Professor, 社会医学系, 教授 (10114068)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
HOSHINO Keiko Institute of Hospital Administration, Senior Researcher, 研究員
都村 敦子 社会保障研究所, 研究員
TEZUKA Akira Saitama University, Professor, 政策科学研究科, 教授 (70125889)
NISHIZONO Masahisa Fukuoka University Medical School, Professor, 医学部, 教授 (30078787)
KAKETA Katsumi Japan Medical Education Foundation, President, 理事長
TSUMURA Atsuko Institute of Social Security, Senior Researcher
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| Project Period (FY) |
1984 – 1986
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| Keywords | Future medical manpower / future trends of patients / future practice pattern / form of employment / 医師の所得 |
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| Research Abstract |
Future medical manpower is a global issue. Many countries are struggling with rapid increase of manpower supply and simply could not find adequate financial resources to cope with.
We have examined various aspects in analyzing this difficult and uncertain issues of future medical manpower. Following aspects were examined : a)future trends of patients, b)future practice pattern, c)form of employment of physicians, d)future needed service e.g. geriatrics and psychiatry, e)regional differences and institutional differences, f)trend of physicians income.
Our findings show that future medical manpower depends on uncertainties of complex combination of above aspects. Forecast of needed physicians depends on institutional case-mix and hospitalization pattern of old age person, varies from 64,000 to 390,000 physicians in year 2000, while Ministry of Health and Welfare's supply estimate is 282,000 physicians.
Needed psychiatrists also show great variation. If U.S. date can be applied, we need additional 12,500 physicians in psychiatry.
We have to have reasonable flexibility in determining future medical manpower policies based on sound data-base of related health manpower.
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