Phenomenological Complexity of Earthquakes and Inherent Uncertainties in Fault Rupture

• Project/Area Number: 18K13629
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 17040:Solid earth sciences-related
• Research Institution: Tokyo Institute of Technology
• Principal Investigator: Aso Naofumi 東京工業大学, 理学院, 助教 (70801223)
• Project Period (FY): 2018-04-01 – 2021-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2020)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000); Fiscal Year 2018: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
• Keywords: 地震 / 断層 / 不確定性 / 複雑性

Outline of Final Research Achievements

For a given physics on the fault, we can calculate slip evolution deterministically. However, precise determination of microscopic heterogeneity is unrealistic, and therefore slip evolution appears to be a stochastic process. In this study, I tried to understand the complexity of earthquake phenomena based on my unique concept of inherent uncertainties in fault rupture. As a result, a simple model could explain a variety of earthquakes, from crack-like to pulse-like features, as well as slow earthquakes.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

地震の物理的側面には未解決の問題が多く、例えば、大きな地震と小さな地震との根本的な違いでさえ、よく分かっていない。近年では、断層面がゆっくりと滑るスロー地震が巨大地震前に発生していることもわかっており、地震すべりの多様性を理解することは重要である。本研究の成果は、非常にシンプルなモデルながらも、断層破壊の多様性を再現する、世界で初めてのモデルである。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] アラスカ大学(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] 台湾中央研究院(その他の国・地域)
• [Journal Article] Focal mechanisms of deep low-frequency earthquakes beneath Zao volcano, northeast Japan, and its relationship to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): Oikawa, G., N. Aso, and J. Nakajima
  • Journal Title: Geophys. Res. Lett. Volume: 46 Issue: 13 Pages: 7361-7370
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl082577
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Ordinary and Slow Earthquakes Reproduced in a Simple Continuum System With Stochastic Temporal Stress Fluctuations (2019)
  • Author(s): Aso Naofumi、Ando Ryosuke、Ide Satoshi
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 46 Issue: 24 Pages: 14347-14357
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019gl085010
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Development of Slow Earthquake Database (2018)
  • Author(s): Kano, M., N. Aso, S. Annoura, R. Arai, K. Chao, K. Heki, S. Itaba, Y. Ito, N. Kamaya, T. Maeda, J. Maury, M. Nakamura, T. Nishimura, K. Obana, H. Sugioka, R. Takagi, T. Takahashi, A. Takeo, Y. Tu, N. Uchida, Y. Yamashita, T. Matsuzawa, S. Ide and K. Obara
  • Journal Title: Seismol. Res. Lett. Volume: 89(4) Issue: 4 Pages: 1566-1575
  • DOI: 10.1785/0220180021
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Cefepime‐induced encephalopathy: Neural mass modeling of triphasic wave‐like generalized periodic discharges with a high negative component (Tri‐HNC) (2018)
  • Author(s): Tamune Hidetaka、Hamamoto Yu、Aso Naofumi、Yamamoto Naoki
  • Journal Title: Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences Volume: 73 Issue: 1 Pages: 34-42
  • DOI: 10.1111/pcn.12795
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] 島根東部で観測＆検出した深部低周波地震の発生時間間隔分布 (2021)
  • Author(s): Aso, N.
  • Organizer: スロー地震学 C01班集会
• [Presentation] Quantitative comparison between the radiation-corrected EGF and the conventional EGF (2020)
  • Author(s): Shibata, R., G. Oikawa, N. Aso, J. Nakajima, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2020 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Quantitative evaluation of relationship between stress change of large earthquakes and activity of low-frequency earthquakes in Northeast Japan (2020)
  • Author(s): Oikawa, G., N. Aso, and J. Nakajima
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2020 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Campaign Observations of Deep Long-Period Earthquakes in Eastern Shimane (2020)
  • Author(s): Aso, N.
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2020 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 放射パターンを補正した経験的グリーン関数と従来の経験的グリーン関数を用いた波形インバージョン結果の定量比較 (2020)
  • Author(s): 柴田 律也・及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2020年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 巨大地震の静的応力変化が火山深部低周波地震の活動変化に与える影響の定量的評価 (2020)
  • Author(s): 及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2020年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 島根東部の深部低周波地震の臨時観測 (2020)
  • Author(s): 麻生 尚文・寺井 望
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2020年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 広島県北東部での火山型深部長周期地震観測 (2020)
  • Author(s): Aso, N., R. Ando, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: Slow Earthquakes WS 2020 Virtual
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 島根東部の火山型深部長周期地震の初期プロセス解明へ向けた観測計画 (2020)
  • Author(s): Aso, N.
  • Organizer: スロー地震学 A01 A02 合同オンライン研究会
• [Presentation] 放射パターンを補正した経験的グリーン関数による震源過程解析 (2020)
  • Author(s): 柴田 律也・及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2020年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 東北日本で発生する火山性深部低周波地震の震源メカニズム (2020)
  • Author(s): 及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2020年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Deep Long-Period Earthquakes in Eastern Shimane (2020)
  • Author(s): 麻生 尚文
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2020年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Raspberry Piと加速度センサで学ぶ雑微動解析 (2020)
  • Author(s): 麻生 尚文・柴田 律也・中島 淳一
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2020年大会
• [Presentation] 確率論的破壊伝播計算で考えるスロー地震の物理的実体 (2020)
  • Author(s): Aso, N.
  • Organizer: スロー地震学 C01班集会
• [Presentation] Variation of Focal Mechanisms of Low Frequency Earthquakes in Parkfield (2019)
  • Author(s): 麻生 未季・麻生 尚文・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Evaluation of Magnitude and Characteristics of Seismicity of Low Frequency Earthquakes in Parkfield (2019)
  • Author(s): 麻生 未季・麻生 尚文・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Mechanisms transition of LFEs beneath Zao volcano due to the stress change induced by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (2019)
  • Author(s): 及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一・松澤 暢
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Source process of recent M6-class inland earthquakes in Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): 柴田 律也・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2019年大会
• [Presentation] Stochastic modeling of slow earthquakes comparable to observations (2019)
  • Author(s): 麻生 尚文・安藤 亮輔・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2019年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Stochastic Earthquake Modeling to Bridge the Gap between Deterministic Modeling and Earthquake Diversity (2019)
  • Author(s): Aso, N., R. Ando, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: IUGG General Assembly
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 「スロー地震データベース」の取り組み (2019)
  • Author(s): 松澤 孝紀・加納 将行・田中 優作・麻生 尚文・井出 哲・小原 一成
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 蔵王・岩手山・肘折で発生する深部低周波地震のメカニズム (2019)
  • Author(s): 及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Rupture simulation in a temporally stochastic stress field (2019)
  • Author(s): 麻生 尚文・安藤 亮輔・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 放射パターンを考慮した経験的グリーン関数を用いた震源過程解析 (2019)
  • Author(s): 柴田 律也・及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] パークフィールドの低周波地震の震源メカニズム解 ー理論波形振幅を用いた振幅インバージョンー (2019)
  • Author(s): 麻生 未季・麻生 尚文・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2019年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Temporally stochastic stress perturbations enable slow ruptures (2019)
  • Author(s): Aso, N., R. Ando, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: Joint Workshop on Slow Earthquakes 2019
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Rupture Evolution in a Temporally Stochastic Stress Field to be Slow (2019)
  • Author(s): Aso, N., R. Ando, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2019 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Focal Mechanisms of Volcanic Deep Low Frequency Earthquakes in Northeast Japan (2019)
  • Author(s): Oikawa, G., N. Aso, and J. Nakajima
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2019 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Focal Mechanisms of LFEs in Parkfield by the amplitude inversion using synthetic waveforms (2019)
  • Author(s): Aso, M., N. Aso, S. Ide, and D. Shelly
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2019 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Slip Inversion with Radiation-corrected Empirical Green’s Functions (2019)
  • Author(s): Shibata, R., G. Oikawa, N. Aso, J. Nakajima, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2019 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 決定論的モデリングと地震の多様性とのギャップを埋める確率論的震源物理学 (2019)
  • Author(s): 麻生 尚文
  • Organizer: スロー地震学 C01班集会
• [Presentation] パークフィールドでの低周波地震のスタック波形の振幅評価：震源メカニズム推定のために (2018)
  • Author(s): 麻生 未季・麻生 尚文・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] New dynamic model of slow earthquakes considering stochasticity in rupture simulation (2018)
  • Author(s): 麻生 尚文・安藤 亮輔・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Development of Slow Earthquake Database (2018)
  • Author(s): 加納 将行・麻生 尚文・松澤 孝紀・井出 哲・案浦 理・新井 隆太・馬場 慧・M. Bostock・K. Chao・日置 幸介・板場 智史・伊藤 喜宏・鎌谷 紀子・J. Maury・中村 衛・西村 卓也・尾鼻 浩一郎・太田 和晃・N. Poiata・B. Rousset・杉岡 裕子・高木 涼太・高橋 努・竹尾 明子・Y. Tu・内田 直希・山下 裕亮・小原 一成
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合 2018年大会
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Stochastic Dynamic Modeling to Reproduce Variability of Earthquakes (2018)
  • Author(s): Aso, N., R. Ando, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society 15th Annual Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Focal mechanisms and seismicity of LFEs on Parkfield (2018)
  • Author(s): Aso, M., N. Aso, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: Southern California Earthquake Center Annual Meeting 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Slow slip and tremors driven by stochastic stress perturbation (2018)
  • Author(s): Aso, N., R. Ando, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: Joint Workshop on Slow Earthquakes 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Focal mechanisms and seismicity of LFEs on Parkfield (2018)
  • Author(s): Aso, M., N. Aso, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: Joint Workshop on Slow Earthquakes 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Recent Report on "Slow Earthquake Database" (2018)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, Y., M. Kano, N. Aso, T. Matsuzawa, S. Ide, and K. Obara
  • Organizer: Joint Workshop on Slow Earthquakes 2018
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] SP振幅比を用いた火山深部低周波地震の発震機構解の推定 (2018)
  • Author(s): 及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一・松澤 暢
  • Organizer: 日本火山学会 2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 地震発生プロセスと確率過程 (2018)
  • Author(s): 井出 哲・麻生 尚文・矢部 優
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2018年度秋季大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 確率論的な応力擾乱で再現されるスロー地震 (2018)
  • Author(s): 麻生 尚文・安藤 亮輔・井出 哲
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 東北日本で発生する火山深部低周波地震のメカニズム解 (2018)
  • Author(s): 及川 元己・麻生 尚文・中島 淳一・松澤 暢
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] 「スロー地震データベース」の構築と運用 (2018)
  • Author(s): 田中 優作・加納 将行・麻生 尚文・松澤 孝紀・井出 哲・小原 一成
  • Organizer: 日本地震学会 2018年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Recent Report on "Slow Earthquake Database" (2018)
  • Author(s): Tanaka, Y., M. Kano, N. Aso, T. Matsuzawa, S. Ide, and K. Obara
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2018 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Stochasticity representing heterogeneity and reproducing various earthquakes (2018)
  • Author(s): Aso, N., R. Ando, and S. Ide
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union 2018 Fall Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Remarks]