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Study on motivation for migration accelerated by climate change

Research Project

Project/Area Number 19KK0025
Research Category

Fund for the Promotion of Joint International Research (Fostering Joint International Research (B))

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Medium-sized Section 4:Geography, cultural anthropology, folklore, and related fields
Research InstitutionHosei University

Principal Investigator

Fujikura Ryo  法政大学, 人間環境学部, 教授 (10274482)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 佐々木 大輔  東北大学, 災害科学国際研究所, 准教授 (30784889)
石渡 幹夫  東京大学, 大学院新領域創成科学研究科, 客員教授 (30831664)
Project Period (FY) 2019-10-07 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥12,220,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,820,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2020: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2019: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywordsマーシャル諸島 / 気候変動 / 海面上昇 / 移民 / 動機 / 人工島建設 / ハワイ / 経済格差 / 移住モデル / 社会的義務 / 小島嶼国 / マーシャル諸島共和国 / パンデミック
Outline of Research at the Start

気候変動に伴う海面上昇や異常気象によって国土の大半が居住不能になるリスクが大きいマーシャル諸島共和国の人々が、その影響をどのように認識し、どの時点で国外へ移住を決断するかを明らかにする。まず、同地の大学生と住民を対象とした予備調査と本調査を実施する。次に、気候変動が社会全体に及ぼした影響が地域に及び、さらに個々の家庭の移動に関する判断に影響するモデルを構築する。これをニューラルネットワークにより数値モデル化する。そして、アンケート調査から構造方程式モデルを構築し、住民がどう移転を決断するか、移転に消極的な住民を移転に向かわせるにはどうすれば良いのかを明らかにする。

Outline of Final Research Achievements

A questionnaire survey was conducted in the Marshall Islands among 308 citizens of Majuro in order to analyze the factors that led them to immigrate. Using the results from the questionnaire items that indicate the motivations for emigration as independent variables, we extracted the factors with significantly high correlation coefficients; they suggest that the desire to escape from the many obligations within the family and regional community are predominant push factors for migrating overseas while the economic disparity between the United State and their home countries are predominant pull factors. Independently, the Permutation Feature Importance was used to extract the salient factors motivating migration, which provides similar results. Furthermore, the result of structural equation modeling verified the hypothesis that an escape from many obligations and economic disparity is a major motivation for migration at a significance level of 0.1%.

Academic Significance and Societal Importance of the Research Achievements

マーシャル諸島共和国は環礁のみから成り、海面上昇が悪影響を及ぼすことが懸念されている。一方で、同国国民は米国にビザなしで居住し労働することが認められており、すでに3万人が米国に在住していると考えられている。
本研究は、マーシャル人が海外へ移住しようとする主な動機を探ることを目的としたものである。その結果、従来考えられていた高等教育や就職、医療、家族との同居より、母国における社会的義務から逃れたいという欲求が卓越していることが明らかになり、気候変動は主要因でないことが示された。今後、気候変動による移民が増加することが予想されるが、その傾向を占ううえで有意義な知見が得られた。

Report

(6 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • 2021 Research-status Report
  • 2020 Research-status Report
  • 2019 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (16 results)

All 2023 2022 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (9 results) Journal Article (5 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 5 results,  Open Access: 5 results) Presentation (2 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Invited: 2 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] College of Marshall Islands (マーシャル)

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Environmental Law Institute(米国)

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Environmental Law Institute(米国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] College of the Marshall Islands(マーシャル)

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] Environmental Law Institute(米国)

    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 南太平洋大学マーシャル分校/マーシャル諸島カレッジ(マーシャル)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 環境法研究所(米国)

    • Related Report
      2020 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 南太平洋大学(マーシャル)

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Int'l Joint Research] 環境法研究所(米国)

    • Related Report
      2019 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Family and Community Obligations Motivate People to Immigrate - A Case Study from the Republic of the Marshall Islands2023

    • Author(s)
      Fujikura Ryo, Nakayama Mikiyasu, Sasaki Daisuke, Taafaki Irene, Chen Jichao
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

      Volume: 20 Issue: 8 Pages: 5448-5448

    • DOI

      10.3390/ijerph20085448

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report 2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Migration, Dignity, Fragility, and Pandemics: Overview of the Special Issue2022

    • Author(s)
      Mikiyasu Nakayama, Shanna N. McClain, Ryo Fujikura, and Daisuke Sasaki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Disaster Research

      Volume: 17 Issue: 3 Pages: 285-291

    • DOI

      10.20965/jdr.2022.p0285

    • ISSN
      1881-2473, 1883-8030
    • Year and Date
      2022-04-01
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Alternatives for the Marshall Islands to Cope with the Anticipated Sea Level Rise by Climate Change2022

    • Author(s)
      Mikiyasu Nakayama, Ryo Fujikura, Rie Okuda, Mai Fujii, Ryuta Takashima, Tomoya Murakawa, Erika Sakai, and Hiroaki Iwama
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Disaster Research

      Volume: 17 Issue: 3 Pages: 315-326

    • DOI

      10.20965/jdr.2022.p0315

    • ISSN
      1881-2473, 1883-8030
    • Year and Date
      2022-04-01
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Evacuees Preferred to Continue Living in Relocation Sites Rather than Return: Misunderstanding of the Government and Media About the True Intentions of Evacuees2022

    • Author(s)
      Ryo Fujikura, Miko Maekawa, Mikiyasu Nakayama, and Daisuke Sasaki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Disaster Research

      Volume: 17 Issue: 3 Pages: 356-364

    • DOI

      10.20965/jdr.2022.p0356

    • ISSN
      1881-2473, 1883-8030
    • Year and Date
      2022-04-01
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Highly Skilled Migrant Workers as a Vulnerability of Small Island Developing States During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cases of Three Countries in Micronesia2022

    • Author(s)
      Miko Maekawa, Mikiyasu Nakayama, Ryo Fujikura, Takayasu Yoshida, and Nagisa Shiiba
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Disaster Research

      Volume: 17 Issue: 3 Pages: 380-387

    • DOI

      10.20965/jdr.2022.p0380

    • ISSN
      1881-2473, 1883-8030
    • Year and Date
      2022-04-01
    • Related Report
      2021 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Immigration from the Republic of Marshaii Islands to the USA2023

    • Author(s)
      Ryo Fujikura
    • Organizer
      Science-Based Sustainability Policy, Hungary
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Immigration from the Republic of Marshall Islands to the USA2023

    • Author(s)
      Ryo Fujikura
    • Organizer
      Science-Based Sustainability Policy - Janos Zlinszky Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Invited

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Published: 2019-10-10   Modified: 2025-01-30  

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